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Winter storm watch tweaked, see how much snow you get

The winter storm that was issued yesterday has been fine-tuned. Now, much of Lower Michigan is in winter weather. The…

The winter storm that was issued yesterday has been fine-tuned. Now, much of Lower Michigan is in winter weather.

The more unpleasant progression from winter storm clock to winter storm alarm has not happened with the coming Sunday night and Monday morning snow storm. Still expecting a firm, wet snow over a large part of Lower Michigan. National Weather Service feels that snow will fall short of winter storm criterion.

The map above shows how winter weather advice applies to Lower Michigan.

Winter weather administration begins mostly around 19:00. this evening and continue to about 1 p.m. Monday. This period gives you a good feeling when traveling is the most dangerous.

Winter weather advice includes Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Lansing, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland and Thumb. The advisory also includes Ludington, Manistee, Cadillac, Mount Pleasant, Clare, Houghton Lake and Tawas City.

Winter weather advisory is for a firm, wet snow.

Total snowfall forecast at the time of the storm ending monday afternoon, November 26, 2018. This is the human-made national weather forecast.

Just above is the total snow forecast for this storm. The quantities are produced by actual human meteorologists at the National Weather Service office. The human forecast is based on a compromise between our two most trusted computer models.

First Great Winter Storm for Lower Michigan, but for what parts?

I would call it a solid four to six inch snow for a big turn from the southwest Lower to the northeastern and the Saginaw Bay area. In the heaviest band of snow there is a small chance of seven inches of total snow, and a very small chance of an isolated eight inch amount. The axis of the expected heaviest snow, starting at 6:00 am today, is from Grand Rapids to Saginaw and Bay City.

Because of the warm air of the first half of the storm, the western southern Lower comes only one to three inches of total snow. I would lean towards the lower part of Detroit and Ann Arbor.

Jackson is sandwiched between the heavy snow area and the light snow area. Jackson is likely to get two to four inches of snow.

Check for updates that may still include a slight shift south or north. I do not expect any major surprises on storm tracks and snowfall potential. The one uncertainty is melting of falling snow with temperatures of 32 degrees to 34 degrees. If melting snow is the case, the snowflakes can be thrown down an inch or two.

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