The president, who has a penchant for big business, has antydit publicly an agreement is on his agenda and adds a threat if it will not happen."Maybe we can negotiate another agreement and add China and others, or maybe we can't," said Trump, mentioning his decision to pursue a treaty during his January address to the country. "In that case, we will consider and Take advantage of all the others by far. "The White House is conducting intensive interagency talks to develop options for the president to run such a deal, build another nuclear pact, the new beginning treaty, which expires in 2021," said several White officials. House to CNN."The chairman has made it clear that he believes that arms control should include Russia and China and should include all weapons, all war heads, all missiles," said a leading white house official. "We have an ambition to give the president's options as soon as possible to give him as much space on the calendar as possible. " " This is something no administration has tried, "senior service said eman. "But I would argue that no administration has tried what [Trump] tried with North Korea for example." Worrying to trigger a gun run But the scope of these ambitions, Trump's previous criticism by New START as a "bad deal" and the role that national security advises John Bolton ̵ 1; critics of arms control agreements – has some observers worried that the true goals of the administration may be a way…
The president, who has a penchant for big business, has antydit publicly an agreement is on his agenda and adds a threat if it will not happen.
“Maybe we can negotiate another agreement and add China and others, or maybe we can’t,” said Trump, mentioning his decision to pursue a treaty during his January address to the country. “In that case, we will consider and Take advantage of all the others by far. “
The White House is conducting intensive interagency talks to develop options for the president to run such a deal, build another nuclear pact, the new beginning treaty, which expires in 2021,” said several White officials. House to CNN.
“The chairman has made it clear that he believes that arms control should include Russia and China and should include all weapons, all war heads, all missiles,” said a leading white house official. “We have an ambition to give the president’s options as soon as possible to give him as much space on the calendar as possible. “
” This is something no administration has tried, “senior service said eman. “But I would argue that no administration has tried what [Trump] tried with North Korea for example.”
But the scope of these ambitions, Trump’s previous criticism by New START as a “bad deal” and the role that national security advises John Bolton ̵
1; critics of arms control agreements – has some observers worried that the true goals of the administration may be a way to end a second nuclear pact it sees as limiting and outdated.
“The only reason you raise China is if you have no intention of extending the new START treaty,” says Alexandra Bell, Senior Policy Officer at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
Bell and other weapons control experts are worried that the world’s two largest nuclear weapons for the first time in decades would throw borders on their nuclear arsenals.
Administration officials say their goal is to strengthen a dusty pact for a new one age and increase global security.
“If we can get the deal If we can make sure it fits in 2021 and beyond, President Trump has made it very clear that if we can get a good, solid arms control agreement, we should get one,” Prime Minister Mike said. Pompeo to the Congress of the Month, adding that “we must make sure we have all the parties that are relevant as part of this,” Pompeo said. “Other countries except Russia and China.”
Trump administration has not established a timeline for negotiations or even raising prospects with China and Russia, Pompeo told lawmakers that the United States was in “the very beginning of the conversations about renewing” the treaty.
New Start “covers only a small set of weapons that Russia was comfortably covered, “said the official.
” What the president wants to look at is that we should keep all these weapons under control, “sat “The officer.” We should eliminate as many of them as possible, we should make sure to eliminate weapons classes. “With less than two years left in their first term, Trump would be under the gun to achieve something that many consider impossible. . Administration officials say it’s not a reason not to try, and one pointed out that it took the Obama administration less than two years to negotiate New START.
It is a comparison that weapons control experts say does not hold water. New START was built on decades of negotiations on the original START Treaty, while a pact that includes a new country may require starting from the beginning.
Both US and Russian officials have signaled that renewal may be prolonged and difficult. Trump administration officials question whether Moscow’s development of new nuclear weapons is the kind of step a “responsible stakeholder” would take.
Russian officials are questioning US compliance with New START.
“The expansion of the new START is not a simple technology that can be resolved in a few weeks,” said the Russian ambassador to American Anatoly Antonov at a weapons control conference this month. “Serious problems must be solved.”
The 2010 New START Treaty limits both nations to distributing 1,550 nuclear weapons heads over 700 delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, underwater launched ballistic missiles and bombs. It also allows 18 on-site inspections each year, which makes it possible for each side to keep track of the other’s capacity.
The treaty expires in 2021, but can be extended by up to five years if both sides agree.
The White House, however, does not see the need to speed up conversations about expanding New START before they go after the major deal, which would appear to include non-strategic weapons and get rid of certain classes of weapons.
“We don’t need to discuss right now about an extension,” the official said. Instead, we have to discuss, with everything that Russia and China are developing, which looks like a threat to the United States, and how should a proposal look to get them both to the table to try to negotiate a better deal. “
Nuclear Experts are cautious about getting too close to renewal, which will jeopardize the treaty Lynn Rusten, vice president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, says that a “cautious way forward” would renew New START and then retire into Chinese and possibly other nuclear countries such as the UK and France.
“An overly ambitious approach will To be unnecessarily risky, “says Rusten.” You can have the belt and braces and start laying the groundwork for a more ambitious agreement. But I don’t think getting rid of the belt and shock absorbers increases the chance of getting the more ambitious deal. “
Rusten worries that the closer the deadline becomes, the more both sides will try to exploit their position. may lead to a crash and burn.
Bell says that if New START expires, the US will lose access to important information about the Russian nuclear system. “We give it up, we lose that intelligence that gives us a real-time view in their strategic arsenal … then we have to make choices about what we do with our own nuclear weapons based on guesswork. “
Bell and other questions say the administration’s idea of including China in the treaty raises issues and somehow matches credibility.
First, Beijing has long said it would not participate in nuclear controls with countries that have much disturbance China has less than one-tenth of the nuclear weapons that Russia and the United States have, it has no first-use policy and is believed to store its warheads apart from its missiles.
“China is not even in the same ballpark,” Bell said. “They don’t even play the same game.”
Unless Beijing agreed to be a junior partner in a broader pact – a very unlikely scenario – to bring China under New START’s limitations, they would present Washington and Moscow with an unfortunate choice.
To reach parity, they must either radically reduce their own weapons holdings or let China launch a massive nuclear building to match US and Russian figures.
The Chinese Embassy did not respond to CNN’s request for comment.
European defense administrators say there is value in the idea of drawing China into strategic discussions, but they do not hold much hope.
“On the one hand, there is talk of wanting to include China, on the other hand, there is a realistic expectation that China is not interested in joining this framework,” an official said. “When you put these two together, the prospects are not terribly optimistic.”
During a meeting with Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He in the Oval Office, Trump said he believes Moscow and Beijing will “join” at a nuclear power store and said it may happen after the US and China complete trade negotiations.
“I think it’s much better if we all got together and we didn’t make those weapons,” Trump said. “As you know, China spends a lot of money on military. So we are. So is Russia. And the three countries think I can get together and stop spending and spend on things that might be more productive against the long term term of peace.”