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Tips for week 10 NFL picks: Good trend for Steelers, massive unfortunate matches, teaser a week and more

Pass offense DVOA rank22 25 25 ] 22 19659038] You can cast out a lot of what the numbers say…

Pass offense DVOA rank 22 25 25 ] 22 19659038] You can cast out a lot of what the numbers say about the match with Washington that is about devastating damage to the offensive course. When the damage panel is striking the same device on a team, the questions will cause that device to have associations more than if the damage is spread over different positions. So even though Bucs has the worst defense in the league per DVOA, we should expect their front four to win the battle in the excavations here.

So it will be on Redskin’s defense to slow down a talented Buc’s passenger crash that ranks fourth in net yards per attempt beyond 10th in DVOA. If Bucs breaks through in crime that Atlanta did against Washington last week, the game over.

Patriots (-6.5) at Titans

Distributed at home: 3 points
Performance: Patriots -4
] Lookahead line: Patriots -6

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Record vs spread 6-3 [19659043] 5-3
Revolutions per leak difference 0.1 -0.7
Points per run-off 6 25
Points per driving response length 12 6
6
] Viktad DVOA 16.7 -9.3
Pass offense DVOA rank 7 [19659047] 26
8 16 8 16 19659045] 16 16 ] The Titans have allowed the smallest points in the league, while the red hot patriots have won six in a row. Something has to be given, and while Titan’s defense goes well on the surface, DVOA is not a fan and ranks them 20th overall. Malcolm Butler has proved to be an exploitable responsibility in Titan’s secondary, and Bill Belichick will benefit from any weaknesses he can find. Despite a couple of shootouts against the bosses and the bear, the patriots’ defense has played well during the team’s sex play.

My power assessments think this line is inflated because Titans should be four-point dogs at home in this matchup. But the four worst game of patriots in terms of yardage received were their four road games. If the Titans can continue to limit belongings and shine in the red zone, it should remain in the number.

Packers Delphins (-9.5)

Distributed at Home: 4 Points
Marking Line: Packers -9.5
Lookahead Line: N / A

Record vs Distribution 5-4 ] 3-5
Yards per play differential -0.5 0.5
Points per run-off 26 16
Points per driving response length 19 18
18
] Viktad DVOA 4.3 4.5
Pass offense DVOA rank [19659047] 19 13
Passport DVOA ranking 23 21
Driving ban DVOA rank 13 5
Driving Defense DVOA Rank 17 17 ] 26

That Dolphins has a winning record after nine matches despite these underlying statistics is quite impressive. Coupled the wide inequality of the YPP differential with Packer’s excellent home device advantage, and it should be a runaway Packers cover, right?

Well, DVOA is a much bigger fan of dolphins, and basically also packers them in season despite a crime that has been held for 175 meters two different times this year, including last week’s victory over the jets. Packer’s defense has been a problem lately, and while you can not fault them from getting on the road and failing to turn off Rams or Patriots, they were not exactly good for goodbye either. Six of Green Bay’s eight opponents have scored between 29 and 31 points;

Jaguar on Colts (-3)

Main Field Advantage: 2 Points
Effect Rating: Colts -2.5
Lookahead Line: Colts -2.5

Record vs Distribution 3-5
23
Weighted by game difference
0.4 -0.2
Points per run-off 30 8
Points per driving license DVOA -4.2 4.4
Pass-Offensive DVOA Ranking 27 18
Pass Defense DVOA Rank 7 25
Driving Prohibition DVOA Rank [19659045] 24 9
Driving Defense DVOA Rank 9 13

Talk about a meeting with two opposites. The Jaguars can not hold on much these days, and they really do not seem to be able to exploit Indy’s weakness to the pass. Coltsna rolled into his bye who scored at least 34 points in four of his five games, and while Andrew Luck has shown he can do it with his arm, it’s the running game that exploded during his last two games. The Jaguars play good defense against the run and pass, so it is not given. Colts will find a way to move the ball consistently.

Jaguars have won four of the last five in the series, but Colts had won six Just before it went and Jagsna finally met a Colts team trained by Frank Reich, these trends will not mean much, if anything . The Jaguars have also met many Colts QBs, who are not named Andrew Luck in recent years while injured.

Lions at Bears (-6.5)

Main field of advantage: 3.5 points
Efficiency line: Bears -6.5
Lookahead line: Bears -4

Play against spread 5-3 5-3
Lap per league difference -0.5 0.5
] Points per run-off 15 11
Points per driving license 26 ] 1
Weighted DVOA -19.3 22.4
Pass-Offensive DVOA Rank 21 14
Passport DVOA Rank 30 4
Driving Prohibition DVOA Rank 17 7
Driving Defense DVOA Rank 29 2

Both YPP and DVOA say that Bears is a superior superior team to the lions. While you can see that there is strength against strength and weakness against weaknesses with these crimes and defenses, Bears has as good a crime as the lion, if not better according to certain metrics. Lions defense, on the other hand, is clearly the worst unit in this game, with the bottom four rankings in both passport and rush defense, per DVOA.

The combined issue for the lions is that the bears had Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson’s exercises in full Wednesday, and both may be ready to return from a long absence. Lions, on the other hand, only traded their most reliable recipients, and the crime predicted themselves against the Vikings last week.

Cardinals on Chiefs (-16.5)

Home Depth: 3 Points
Power Rating Line: Chiefs -13
Lookahead Line: Chiefs -14.5

Play Against Spread 4- 3-1 8-1
Reversal per game difference -1.0 0.9
Points per run-off 31 1
Points per driving license 15 19 1
4 19659044] 4
Driving Defense DVOA Rank 12 32

My power values ​​become quite conservative when talking about big lines, and I do not think the cardinals are among the 3-4 worst teams in the league. But I’m not in rush to score a crime that plays historically well. Football Outsiders said Tuesday that the managers have the third best crime they’ve tracked (through 1986) after nine matches in a season.

Josh Rosen and the company can have the chance of a back door defense in the second half, saying they are down 34-14. But can the crime come there? If not for the historically bad bills, the Cardinals would easily have the worst crime in the league, per DVOA. The 321 meters of crimes they had against 49ers in their last match before the break were the first time they even got 270. The best way to attack the bosses is with the run but the cardinal is ranked last in the league in both rush DVOA and lap per berry , and they have not managed a 100-meter game on the ground yet. Not from a player, but as a team. Good luck finding a way to this game is competitive.

Raiders Ladder (-9.5)

Home Distribution: 3 Points
Power Cable: Chargers -8.5
Lookahead Line: Chargers -7.5

Play Against Distribution 4-4 [19659043] 2-6
Lap per game difference 1.3 -1.1
Points per run-off 5 27
Points per driving license 13 32
] Viktad DVOA 21.4 -30.0
Passport Break DVOA Rank 2 16
Pass Defense DVOA Rank 13 32
Driving Prohibition DVOA Rank ] 6 27
Drive Defense DVOA Rank 20 25

This seems to be as big a mismatch as the Cardinals Chiefs game, but with a favorite on the road instead of at home. Will it mean? The raiders turned home at Browns in their only win of the season, but they lost at least 14 points in each of their four games since. It takes some tries to be worse than Bucs in terms of passport defense, but Raiders has succeeded.

Chargers on the other hand have the best YPP differential in the league due to a crash almost as good as the bosses and a defense that’s great to big rather than mediocre. They won home 26-10 against Raiders back in week 5, and we could come in for a similar result here.

Seahawks at Rams (-9.5)

Home Break: 3 Points
Score Score: Rams -9.5
Lookahead Line: Rams -8

Play Against Spread 4-3-1
4-5
29.7
29.7
29.7
29.7
29.7
-0.2 ]
22
Offensive DVOA Rank 11 3
Passenger Defense DVOA Rank 5 12
Driving Danger DVOA Rank 14 2
Driving Defense DVOA Ranking [19659047] ] 15 24

Ramsna was a juggernaut before they fell to holy last week but they actually had trouble covering large numbers this year. Outside a single victory over 49ers, Rams has not covered the closing number since week 3. Although the crime has collapsed, the defense has had its problems this year, and above all, it seems as if something could be exploited by a Seattle crime as has spiced 150 rushes in five straight games.

Seahawks put up 31 points in the first meeting between these two teams, and there was nothing spotty about it; They did not start on the Rams side of the field when all matches, and three of their four TD units went at least 74 meters. If they can put together another complete performance on offensive, this game has a good chance of staying inside the number again.

Cowboys at Eagles (-7)

Home Benefits: 3.5 Points
: Eagles -7.5
Lookahead Line: Eagles -6

Record vs Spread 3-5 [19659043] 3-5
Yards per game differential 0.2 -0.3
] Points per run-off 23 17
Points per drive defense 4 7
Weighted DVOA -6.1 -11.3
Pass Offensive DVOA Rank 28 20
Passport DVOA Rank 26 9
Driving Prohibition DVOA rank 11 18
Driving DVOA rank 4 23

The last time these two teams met, Dallas won 6-0. Should we expect another snooze party here? While both defenses have played much better than their counterparts against the offensive, DVOA is not impressed with Cowboy’s passport defense, and the eagles may have difficulty slowing down Ezekiel Elliott with their rush defense.

The Cowboys have made a total of 28 points in their last three games against this defense, and a similar offensive production will not be completed. Golden Tate captured all eight of their goals for 132 yards and two touchdowns against this defense earlier this year, and the eagles could try to exploit what was working in the Lions match.

Giants at 49ers (-3) [19659007] Main Field Advantage: 2 Points
Power Interfaces: 49ers -2.5
Lookahead Line: 49ers -2.5

Playback Against Distribution 3-5 24 24 18
Points per Driving License 25 24
Weighted by game difference -0.1 0.1
Points per run DVOA -13.3 -18.0
Pass-Offensive DVOA Rank 23 25
Passport DVOA Ranking 27 17
23 23 26
Driving DVOA rank 18 19

Are you ready for any football? Nick Mullens will try to regain his primetime magic against what on paper is a tough defensive matchup, but not so much. The giants can be 1-7, but five of the losses were seven points or less, so they know how to play in games against most teams. 49ers do not have a particularly strong defense, so if Eli Manning and companies are to find some kind of match, these numbers are matching to do that.

DVOA actually finds that the giants are something better, and when you pair it with 49ers below average home field benefits, it may be mature for an upset.

Week’s Teaser

Bears -0.5 vs Lions
Ladders -3.5 on Raiders

Bears is a simple conversation this week, given the wild inequality in statistics between the two The teams and Chicago get stars back on both sides of the ball this week. The second leg in the teaser is a bit more difficult, and even though we do not go through 3 with chargers, they feel like a safe conversation against a Raiders team that has given up. The eagles are also worth considering here if all they have to do is to beat the Cowboys at home with a big divorce.

The week’s teaser is 5-4 after Rams could not keep it within one point against Saints. The injured person.

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