derived drug from the Food and Drug Administration. Vermont made history by becoming the first US State to legalize the…
derived drug from the Food and Drug Administration.
And these are just a handful of the major marijuana events that’ve occurred this year.
However, history has shown that all “next big thing” investments struggle to hold their astronomical gains over the long run. Om vi pratar om internet, business-to-business commerce, the decoding of the human genome, 3D printing, or blockchain technology, the bubble has burst all the same.
Now, this is not to say that Der har ikke været gode firmaer til at komme fra disse industrier. But it does suggest that marijuana stocks, like other fast growing industries that have emerged over the last quarter century, are likely to deflate – and investors know this.
Although incredibly risky, pessimists have been more than willing short sell marijuana stocks. In other words, bet on a decline in pot stock prices. Short-selling is particularly risky because gains are capped at 100%, while losses can be infinite. As the icing on the cake, short-sellers are borrowing shares from their brokerage, meaning they are paying an annual interest rate on what they borrow. For some highly volatile marijuana stocks, this APR is a double or even triple-digit percentage.
But what’s really interesting about investors’ pessimism is that it’s almost completely concentrated in a half-box of marijuana stocks.
In a research note published by S3 Partners last week, courtesy of Investopedia, the top 20 marijuana stocks in terms of short interest on the US and Canadian exchanges have combined for $ 2,867 billion in bets made against the industry. Adding both the U.S. and Canadian listings, the following six marijuana stocks account for 90% ($ 2.58 billion) of this short interest.
I agree that most of these short-selling bets make a lot of sense.
For example, Aurora Cannabis, although forecast to lead the industry in peak annual production (570,000 kilograms per year), we are going to have to do more than simply grow a lot of weed in order to differentiate its business. It’s been acquiring businesses like it’s going out of style and, in the process, has ballooned its outstanding share count. By the time Aurora completes its acquisition of ICC Labs it could have been around 1 billion shares outstanding. This will make it very difficult for Aurora Cannabis to generate a meaningful per-share profit.
Cronos Group is another pot of stock that simply may not be worth its weight in peak production. Only recently did Cronos start construction on a joint venture facility that will yield 70,000 kilograms when fully operational. With this facility it is unlikely to be hitting its stride until 2020, Cronos Group is being valued as an industry leader with what could be just 70,000 kilograms to 80,000 kilograms of combined annual production.
Tilray also deserves some attention from short-sellers . Selv om dette er et forretningsmodel, som jeg kan sætte pris på, med dets fokus på højmargede medicinske cannabispatienter, er der ingen logisk måde at forsvare en aktiepris nord for $ 100 (let alone the $ 300 it hit on an intraday basis back in September). Tilray is going to be spending heavily to boost capacity, ensuring that losses continue for the near future. Besides, it’s still quite a way away from becoming a top-tier producer.
Lastly, I can fully understand pessimists betting against GW Pharmaceuticals. Even though GW’s lead drug, Epidiolex, is in the driver’s seat for two rare types of childhood onset epilepsy, there’s competition on the immediate horizon. It’s unclear whether GW Pharmaceuticals’ lofty valuation will be justified given the approval of a single cannabidiol -based drug.
On the other hand, it remains to be seen if it’s wise to bet against Canopy Growth or Aphria.
Canopy Growth Corp., while pricey, has what is arguably the best sales channels and most recognized brand (Tweed) throughout Canada. It also has the backing of Corona and Modelo beer producer Constellation Brands which announced a $ 3.8 billion investment in Canopy Growth in mid August. Constellation has now poured more than $ 4 billion into Canopy Growth, which is good for a 38% equity stake. With tangible backing from a brand -name alcohol producer, s hort-sellers could be playing with fire.
Then there’s Aphria, which is considerably less expensive than its peers based on its forward price-to-earnings ratio. Aphria does not yet have a major partner in the beverage, tobacco, or pharmaceutical industry, but it is expected to be Canada’s third largest producer by annual yield (255,000 kilograms). Roughly 10% of its production will be focused on high-margin concentrates, which could be another dangling carrot for a larger partner.
While these two could certainly head lower, the pessimist’s case is a lot of murkier.