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Tesla's long-term hardware and software Play – CleanTech Talk with Tasha Keeney, part 2

April 21, 2019 by Zachary Shahan For our hot new CleanTech Talk podcast interview series, I recently joined ARK Invest Analyst Tasha Keeney to discuss various aspects of autonomous vehicles, Tesla, Tesla and Tesla. Tasha is focused on autonomous cars and 3D printing in her position with ARK Invest. Tasha and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently hosted Tesla CEO Elon Musk in the studio for his new podcast series, so we built up that chat and I also included several important autonomy topics that I am always anxious to learn more about . The conversation was about 45 minutes long, so cutting it into more manageable parts, I shared it in two sections. This article covers the second episode, and the first episode was published here: "Tesla Autopilot, Full Self Driving, Elon Musk, ARK Invest – CleanTech Talk with Tasha Keeney." Listen to the second part of the discussion about your favorite podcast platform (11 options are linked under the CleanTech Talk banner) or through this built-in SoundCloud player: [19659005] You can subscribe and listen to CleanTech Talk's at: Anchor, Apple Podcasts / iTunes, Breaker, Google Podcasts, Clouds, Pocket, Podbean, Radio Public, SoundCloud, Spotify and Stitcher. To start this second part, I noticed the somewhat hidden or unshielded point that, while a Tesla model 3 can cost as much as a BMW 3 series or Mercedes-Benz C class (or 10 000 € less), it has a ton more computer hardware and software packed in the one that will pay…

April 21, 2019 by Zachary Shahan


For our hot new CleanTech Talk podcast interview series, I recently joined ARK Invest Analyst Tasha Keeney to discuss various aspects of autonomous vehicles, Tesla, Tesla and Tesla. Tasha is focused on autonomous cars and 3D printing in her position with ARK Invest.

Tasha and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently hosted Tesla CEO Elon Musk in the studio for his new podcast series, so we built up that chat and I also included several important autonomy topics that I am always anxious to learn more about .

The conversation was about 45 minutes long, so cutting it into more manageable parts, I shared it in two sections. This article covers the second episode, and the first episode was published here: “Tesla Autopilot, Full Self Driving, Elon Musk, ARK Invest – CleanTech Talk with Tasha Keeney.”

Listen to the second part of the discussion about your favorite podcast platform (11 options are linked under the CleanTech Talk banner) or through this built-in SoundCloud player:

[19659005] You can subscribe and listen to CleanTech Talk’s at: Anchor, Apple Podcasts / iTunes, Breaker, Google Podcasts, Clouds, Pocket, Podbean, Radio Public, SoundCloud, Spotify and Stitcher.

To start this second part, I noticed the somewhat hidden or unshielded point that, while a Tesla model 3 can cost as much as a BMW 3 series or Mercedes-Benz C class (or 10 000 € less), it has a ton more computer hardware and software packed in the one that will pay off down the road. “A Tesla is the only car on the road that actually improves when it leaves the party. … A traditional automaker has never been in control of the complete software package for all hardware decisions and their sorting of decisions in other separate external companies – as to which hardware Overcoming it – we think we can go many companies over the next ten years.

“On the cost side, we have heard, you know, that Porsche and Audi made a model 3 teardown and were surprised at how cheap Tesla could create these components. Now that they have released the lowest version, I think other car manufacturers should – and probably be scared right now. “

I then discussed Maartens analysis of the clearly erroneous UBS analysis of the production costs for Tesla Model 3. That article is a must read and helps explain not only why UBS got the story so wrong but also how it is that Tesla leads so much on EV and autonomous driving costs. (I published a follow-up on the UBS analyst’s history at Tesla and GM, which I have to recommend.) Tasha then went deeper into the hardware side and Tesla’s hardware calculation leadership.

valuation – or lack of it – of Tesla’s autonomous driving arm, especially in relation to other actors in the business.

Furthermore, we discussed how Tesla is innovative in manufacturing – both hardware and software – and how it also ties to Tesla’s strong vertical integration.

Tasha gave the potential for other car manufacturers to go bankrupt in the next few years, which took me back to something yes g wrote about in mid-March. “Remember that there was no 100% collapse in auto sales that caused GM and Chrysler to go bankrupt about a decade ago. Overall, US car sales fell by 11.7% from 2007 to 2008. “Looking at how much car sales have fallen in several automakers, as Tesla sales have risen, the idea of ​​coming bankruptcy leaves much more realistic. Look at automaker sales drops in January, February and March and really reflect on this.

We also took the theme Tesla Model 3 is actually cost effective with the Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, Nissan Altima and other such cars, a topic ARK Invest also recently analyzed.

We also talked about bending points, how they come and why we often don’t see them coming. Tasha introduced his use of Wright’s law to model many of their technology cost reduction curves. She also noted that many of the analyzes that they see that are dramatically different (more bearish) than ARK Invest’s analyzes are backward-looking, which basically do not even consider coming in point points.

To finish the interview, I asked Tasha a little about ARK Invest’s strategy of investing and scoping the market. Instead of the fourth quarter, ARK aims at a return of 5 years. Looks like 5+ years, it’s just hard to see how Tesla doesn’t come out before the competition and continues to run at the top of the EV market – as the market gets much bigger.

To close, Tasha had some excellent words of takeaway that stepped back to look at a bigger picture. They did not focus specifically on Tesla but instead on AI’s total growth. “I think we are in a time when we undergo these dramatic conversions in AI, and it not only affects vehicles – we think it can affect all the industry. And it is very difficult to predict, but if Something we have seen so far so far that it comes much faster than you expect. “

Hear much more, listen to the entire podcast via the built-in player above or on your favorite podcast platform.

Again, you can listen to the first part of the conversation on one of these channels: Anchor, Apple Podcasts / iTunes, Breaker, Google Podcasts, Overcast, Pocket, Podbean, Radio Public, SoundCloud, Spotify and Stitcher. Or you can read a summary of this.

You can also listen to my podcast discussion with Ross Gerber (in three parts – one, two, three) and upcoming episodes will be interviews with Galileo Russel of HyperChange TV, Nancy Pfund from DBL Partners, Mark Z. Jacobson from Stanford University and The Solutions Project, Zac from the popular YouTube channel Now you know, Tomek Gać of Quriers and Tesla Shuttle, and perhaps a special feature with a top Tesla executive. Stay calm!


Tags: Ark Invest, Audi, Cleantech Talk, Elon Musk, Honda Accord, Porsche, Tasha Keeney, Tesla, Tesla Autopilot, Tesla Full Self-Driving, UBS, Volkswagen Group

About the Author

] Zachary Shahan Zach is trying to help the community help itself (and other species). He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its manager and editor-in-chief. He is also the president of Important Media and the director / founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love . Zach is globally recognized as an electric car, solar energy and energy storage expert. He has presented cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States and Canada.

Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB. After several years of covering sun and EV, he simply has a lot of faith in these companies and feels that they are good cleantech companies to invest in. But He does not offer professional investment advice and would rather not be responsible for losing money, so do not skip to conclusions.

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