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Tesla FUD: Model 3 Demand #TSLA #Pravduh

Cars Posted on 19th December 2018 |by Frugal Moogal 19th December 2018 of Frugal Moogal The aim of this series is to investigate current topics about Tesla [TSLA] that appear to be moving up "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt "(or FUD). The plan is to try to provide a reasonable analysis of the validity of the claims. I do not generally associate with the articles that "inspire" me to write this because I do not want to reward analysis, which I feel is poor with increased traffic. However, I will admit that my analysis may contain incorrect assumptions and will do my best to acknowledge them in future articles. Photo by Zach Shahan, CleanTechnica I have just published an article that investigates FUD around Elon Musk probably terminating employees "on a whim" and what that may mean. However, this is not the only latest FUD-based story that I think is worth exploring right now. The second story is people who question Model 3 demand, especially because of the latest emails and tweets telling people that they can still order a Tesla Model 3 and get it delivered by the end of the year. As always, my stockpile about my warehouse: I note that I will remain a Tesla shareholder with a large number of 8 shares, without any intention to add or sell that stake. I think Tesla remains a risky investment for a number of reasons I'm not coming in right now (some people commented that they want to hear…

Cars

Posted on 19th December 2018 |
by Frugal Moogal

19th December 2018 of Frugal Moogal


The aim of this series is to investigate current topics about Tesla [TSLA] that appear to be moving up “Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt “(or FUD). The plan is to try to provide a reasonable analysis of the validity of the claims. I do not generally associate with the articles that “inspire” me to write this because I do not want to reward analysis, which I feel is poor with increased traffic. However, I will admit that my analysis may contain incorrect assumptions and will do my best to acknowledge them in future articles.

Photo by Zach Shahan, CleanTechnica

I have just published an article that investigates FUD around Elon Musk probably terminating employees “on a whim” and what that may mean. However, this is not the only latest FUD-based story that I think is worth exploring right now.

The second story is people who question Model 3 demand, especially because of the latest emails and tweets telling people that they can still order a Tesla Model 3 and get it delivered by the end of the year.

As always, my stockpile about my warehouse: I note that I will remain a Tesla shareholder with a large number of 8 shares, without any intention to add or sell that stake. I think Tesla remains a risky investment for a number of reasons I’m not coming in right now (some people commented that they want to hear it so I have to think about how to explain it without creating my own Tesla FUD article … ), but also one that has the potential to increase astronomically in the future, which is why I decided to buy and hold a very limited number of shares. I would not suggest that anyone uses the following article as its sole data point to decide to invest or sell shares in Tesla.

Photo by Zach Shahan, CleanTechnica

Tesla Model 3 Demand

I I’ll Just Get Out and Say This – An article about Model 3 demand is perfect FUD material because it is impossible to have any idea what the demand is like right now.

In addition, Tesla seems to have saturated early Model 3 requests the versions of the cars it currently offers. In fact, based on the fact that Tesla currently has cars available for delivery at the end of the year, I think it is safe to assume that the domestic booking requires that you buy the long and medium variants of the car.

Proof of this is simple: Go to Tesla.com when I write this. It shows that you can still order a Model 3 and receive delivery this year.

This will arrive soon after Elon Musk announced that you would have to order in late November to deliver by the end of the year.

Apparently, at least according to the FUD articles, Tesla did not get as many orders as it expected at the end of November and now needs frantically seeking buyers to try to increase demand.

Although this seems to be a fair interpretation of what happens, if we take a step back, it does not necessarily tell anything.

Tesla Sales Strategy

Assuming that the reservation demand for models currently in production has been completed, there is still a big reason for Tesla to drive sales right now.

On Tesla’s side, Tesla wants to put in another significantly profitable quarter to prove that Wall Street failed to succeed in Q3 success, and to do that, they have to sell as many cars as they can and make people deliver at the end of this month.

On the customer side, they want to receive delivery at the end of the quarter to take advantage of the $ 7,500 tax credit that will start phasing out for Tesla next month. Unless the tax credit is extended, the difference between receiving delivery in December or January is worth $ 3,750.

Tesla knows that this has a big incentive to deliver every single car. No matter how many models 3 s are sold there is a huge incentive to deliver it many plus one more.

Frankly, the first part is really no different than any other business that wants strong sales for a quarter. Then it is reinforced by the tax incentives. If Tesla did not try to sell every single remaining model 3, at the end of the quarter, I thought it would be a much more dubious strategy.

Tesla can not easily switch production lines to produce cheaper variations of car to drive more demand. It has a tool that it has not yet used, but I could use it to increase the demand for the cars it currently produces, and the fact that they have not used it signals me that demand is good.

→ Related: Tesla has 14+ leaders who can drag

Leasing

Let’s talk lease for a moment. Leasing is a big deal for car manufacturers, and it’s an even bigger store for luxury brands. For example, BMW is known to hire more cars than it sells in a year.

When combining it with electric vehicles, leasing seems to be critical. In January this year, Bloomberg reported that 80% of electric cars were hired and not owned.

If demand was awful, Tesla could start model 3 lease. It has not.

Yes, you may have heard that one of Tesla’s lease partners had problems recently, but it does not affect their ability to rent the cars. In fact, Tesla actually only last week Friday sold $ 837 million in bonds supported by its auto lease agreements. While leasing can affect the bottom line until the bonds are sold, it would be an easy way to drive potentially significantly higher demand for current trim levels in model 3.

The company that owns the car in a lease agreement can avail of the tax credits so that demand is as bad as Many of the FUD articles are trying to lead you to believe, I imagine we would have seen a lot of pressure in the lease options at the end of the year. Given that we do not have it, I can not imagine that demand is as much as some think it should be.

Photo by Zach Shahan, CleanTechnica

Conclusion

The subject matter of demand is solid RDD material because there is actually no data beyond the lack of a waiting list to analyze it.

We know there are great incentives for both Tesla and their buyers to deliver cars by the end of the year.

On the back side, the latest Elon sales, e-mail announcements that increase the sales of Tesla, push the “last” date to ensure delivery on delivery is not a good look. [19659009] As a shareholder, I would rather sell Tesla every vehicle as it can before the quarter. By declining tax credits to increase sales as much as possible before the quarter is a way to drive demand. The lack of lease options seems to indicate that the demand for buying the car is fixed.

Tesla is the first machine to exceed the threshold for vehicle tax credit vehicles and I expect that, as we see others, we will see similar offers and move the delivery date of tesla. Unless we see terrible delivery rates when Q4 breaks up, this is another instance of FUD that I think should be ignored.


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Tags: Elon Musk, Tesla, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model 3 Demand, Tesla Model 3 Leasing

About the Author

Frugal Moogal A businessman first, Frugal Moogal looks at EV from the perspective of a company . After working in several industries and in roles that succeeded with significant money, he believes that the way to persuade people that the EV Revolution is here is to look at vehicles that a company should.

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