Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas crunches the numbers on Tesla (TSLA -1.3% ) to estimate that there will be 860K of the company’s vehicle (S / X / 3) on the road globally at the end by 2019. The forecast is based on 879K cumulative units and a 2% scrapping rate.
Jonas further points out that while the extra cars on the road are a form of free advertising, the remainder of Tesla vehicles and the financial impact on Tesla and / or its customer base are unclear at this stage.
It is clear to Jonas that China production and model Y are the basis for Tesla demand, with a peak of 25% of Tesla’s volume expected out of China before 2024.
“We see that Tesla is being formed to become An increasingly delivered game on Chinese demand in 2020 … a history that can exacerbate the executive risk in terms of trade relations between the United States and China. Over time, we believe that investors do not pay a significant multiple
Morgan Stanley has an equivalence rating on Tesla and price targets of $ 230.