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Study sets Financial impact of melting arctic Permafrost at $ 70 TRILLION!

April 24, 2019 by Steve Hanley Dmitry Yumashev and a research group at Lancaster University have studied the effects of melting ice lacquer in the Arctic and the conclusion that an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost, in combination With added heat absorption from the sun due to lack of ice reflecting sunlight away from the earth's surface, it will lead to an increase in the cost of global warming with a staggering $ 70 trillion. It is ten times the economic advantage that can be achieved through easier access to mineral resources in the Arctic and lower shipping costs worldwide. The study entitled " Climate policy consequences of nonlinear decline of arctic soil perfume and other cryosphere elements " was published on April 23 in the journal Nature Communications. In the introduction, Yumashev et al. say "The Arctic region is heated twice as fast as the global average, as evidenced by the decrease of sea ice, snow and glaciers and permafrost degradation in relation to their comparative figures for the period between 1979 and 2005. These changes can further accelerate global warming through a series of Climate Reflections "Carbon from thawing of permafrost, which is discharged into the atmosphere, results in the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF). Decreasing sea ice and snow cover cover sun absorption at high latitudes, causing the surface albedo feedback (SAF). Both feedbacks amplify the anthropogenic signal. The study is first of its kind The authors tell The Guardian their…

April 24, 2019 by Steve Hanley


Dmitry Yumashev and a research group at Lancaster University have studied the effects of melting ice lacquer in the Arctic and the conclusion that an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost, in combination With added heat absorption from the sun due to lack of ice reflecting sunlight away from the earth’s surface, it will lead to an increase in the cost of global warming with a staggering $ 70 trillion. It is ten times the economic advantage that can be achieved through easier access to mineral resources in the Arctic and lower shipping costs worldwide.

 Carbon dioxide and melting permafrost

The study entitled ” Climate policy consequences of nonlinear decline of arctic soil perfume and other cryosphere elements ” was published on April 23 in the journal Nature Communications. In the introduction, Yumashev et al. say

“The Arctic region is heated twice as fast as the global average, as evidenced by the decrease of sea ice, snow and glaciers and permafrost degradation in relation to their comparative figures for the period between 1979 and 2005. These changes can further accelerate global warming through a series of Climate Reflections

“Carbon from thawing of permafrost, which is discharged into the atmosphere, results in the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF). Decreasing sea ice and snow cover cover sun absorption at high latitudes, causing the surface albedo feedback (SAF). Both feedbacks amplify the anthropogenic signal.

The study is first of its kind

The authors tell The Guardian their study is the first to calculate the economic impact of permafrost melting and reduced albedo – a measure of how much light striking a surface is reflected Without being absorbed – based on the most advanced computer models of what is likely to happen in the Arctic as temperatures rise, it shows how destabilized natural systems will exacerbate the problem caused by artificial emissions, making it harder and more expensive to solve. ] Here’s a look at their methodology, taking what is known about current layers of frozen organic matter in the soil up to 3 meters deep at several points across the Arctic, through the world’s most advanced simulation programs in the US and at the UK Met Office for to predict how much gas will be released at different levels of heating, which they used earlier economic consequences to assess the probable costs.

A lack of urgent requirement remains

“It is disappointing that we have this in front of us,” says Yumashev. “Even at 1.5 C to 2 C there are effects and costs due to thawing of permafrost. But they are considerably lower for these scenarios compared to business as usual. We have the technology and the political instruments to limit the warming, but we The lack of urgency is exactly what the protests of extinction rebellion, Greta Thunberg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders are talking about.

If any good news can be found in this study, it is predicted that the effects of molten permafrost and lack of sea ice will be somewhat lower than previous forecasts. “We still have a time bomb, but it can’t be as big as previously thought,” Yumashev says. However, there is no reason to be self-esteem. Even at the low end, the damage is enormous, the study has great uncertainty, and the cost of several other potential tip points has not yet been calculated.

Donald Trump, history’s greatest narcissist, says he will not spend trillions dollars to protect against the effects of something that is a product of junk science – as if he were spending a penny of his wealth to help someone other than himself self. But if these researchers are correct, the economic climate change will ultimately be in the hundreds of trillion dollars. An ounce of prevention today can save countless money in the future, not mentioning the possible reduction of human suffering and loss of life that will flow from a dramatically warmer planet.

The studies continue to pile up, but most countries are still continuing a business as usual and risk that human existence and all living things on earth are preserving the hegemony of fossil fuel companies. If there is any slice of humanity’s far too short time on earth left over after we have killed, perhaps the species that will be living in the earth in a few million years from now will shake and look to William Shakespeare to explain the madness that leads to our downfall. “Lord, what fools these mortals are,” wrote Bard.


Tags: arctic, carbon dioxide, climate cost, ice melting, permafrost

About the author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the technology-sustainability interface from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else Singularity lead him. His motto is, “Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take the breath away!” You can follow him on Google + and on Twitter .

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