People are “very close” to trigger irreversible change in the earth’s poles, says a professor at the University of Otago.
Antarctica and Greenland ice sheet can collapse, although global warming caused by humans is limited before it hits 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial revolutions, according to a new research review. They will shrink to prices similar to the last decade, and possibly faster.
And both have “tip points” at or slightly above 1
.5 to 2C, which will cause irreversible ice loss in Greenland and collapse of major waste basins in Antarctica.
This means that both islands are in major problems, although we can adhere to the Paris agreement’s goal of limiting global average temperatures to “well below 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels and work to limit temperature increase to 1.5 READ MORE:
* Thickest Arctic Ice Breaks North of Greenland
Professor Christina Hulbe of Otago School of Surveying said that the work had “a clear message: we are very close to trigger irreversible change in the earth’s ice bells”. “/>
Antarctica and G “/>
JOE RAEDLE / GETTY IMAGES
The ice sheet of Antarctica and Greenland can shrink in line with the last decade, and possibly faster.
Melting ice cubes mean rising sea levels.
Although we meet the goals in Paris and keeping the heat in control, we are still engaged in continued ice loss during the 21st century, and with the continued sea level rise
“I would like to add that some of the tipping processes may already have been invoked, at least in some parts of Antarctica but understand that more work is required in detail.”
The review showed that the ice would continue to lose mass in the same way as in the past decade.
However, it can not be ruled out that they can collapse even faster.
In June, analysis showed that the melting rate in the Antarctic tripled since 2012.
Lecturer R ob McKay, of the Victoria University of Wellington Antarctic Research Center, said that after the tip points were reached at every polar ice sheet, “recovery becomes potentially unstoppable.”
NASA / JORDENS OBSERVERANDE
Antarctica ice and snow, captured by an Nasa plane as it fled over his head as part of Operation Icebridge, observing changes in the ice
As he said, he said, even if the world fulfilled the goals of the climate agreement in Paris, we would be extremely close to the point of not returning for a quick return.
It’s serious, but McKay also pointed out that it won “It’s going to happen overnight.”
“Although this melting will play over hundreds of thousands of years, it appears from this work that the more we exceed 1, The 5C target, the faster this accelerated melting of the ice will be. “ TIPPING POINTS
Hulbe said that it had been known during a time that both ice sheets were exposed to climate change and that the physical processes that governed They had dots – thresholds beyond which the ice sheets were guaranteed to shrink whatever we do next.
“Which processes are most important are different in the north and south, and the different research groups use some different ways to represent them in computer models. But all computer models point in the same direction: the threshold for irreversible ice loss in both Greenland and Antarctica is somewhere between 1.5 and 2 C global warming. We are already a bit over 1C heating.
“Where models differ, how fast is the ice sheets when crossing the threshold. Differences between models are useful but because they show which processes and regions need more study.”
“New Zealand is an international leader in this type of research. We perform challenging fieldwork in Antarctica and the South Sea, and we are actively committed to building better models to predict what’s next and how it will play for us here at home. “
Victoria University of Wellington Professor James Renwick:” What happens to the ice and the climate, it’s completely down to human activity. We cause this. The power is in our hands to stop doing what we have done over the past 100 years and then switch to renewable energy, stop sending fossil fuels, this is the case.
“This should be another call for action, humanity has the power to change how we work.”
“The latest modeling results indicate that some time over the next 50 years we can come to a threshold where at least the The West Antarctic ice shelf begins to melt irreversibly. When it begins, you can not stop it – and parts of the green iceberg, the same story.
“So we can lock about 5m of sea level, even though we limit global warming to 2C .
Every day, people emitted greenhouse gases to the nearest tip points, he said.
IAIN MCGREGOR / STUFF
Sea ice breaks into Rosshavet, Antarctica.
But New Zealand had the potential to lead the way to climate action.
“We can respond quickly, we can show the world what can be done. The argument that” we are small so we can not do anything “does not seem to apply to the America Cup or the Rugby World Cup. We control the world in some areas, even though we are small.
“There is no reason we could not do it on climate change, for renewable energy, on smart technology. It’s just a mindset, it’s just a matter of will. “
Revision paper, which is a summary of the current understanding of a subject based on research, was published in the journal Nature.
Professor Tim Naish, from the Antarctica Research Center at Victoria University of Wellington, said it was relevant given that the recently released IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C, and considering the world was close to 1.5C heating.
“Without a degree of direct carbon dioxide recovery from the atmosphere, it is unlikely we will avoid it. “