October 29, 2018 Sports 1 Views With that in mind, there are plenty of players, coaches and managers with a…
With that in mind, there are plenty of players, coaches and managers with a lot of ride on what happens during the weeks coming over the second half of the season. Think of someone like Case Keenum, who was almost bent after throwing two interceptions against Washington in week 9 a year ago. Keenum held his job, won six of his next seven games and earned $ 25 million guaranteed in the subsequent deal he signed with Broncos during the offseason. Had Keenum been benched for Teddy Bridgewater, it could have been the former Louisville star who earned the big deal and Keenum settled for a year’s covenant.
Let’s look at the people around the league who have the most to win or lose in the next few months. Many of these players were influenced by the games we just saw in week 8. Let’s start with a quarterback that was relegated to the bench on Sunday:
Jump to player or coach:
Winston | Bell | Carr | Ansah | Ford
Swearinger | J. Brown | Jackson / Haley
There are three NFL teams in Florida. You have a damaged start quarterback. Another benched his cheating young quarterback last week. The third Florida team did the same Sunday. Last Monday I mentioned that the Jaguars were likely to restore Blake Bortles back to the starting line-up quickly because they did not really have portable backup and were already priced to play Bortles by 2019.
Buccaneers can hold Winston back in the Sunday play match Panthers, but they do not have the same excuses for maintaining the status quo. In Ryan Fitzpatrick, they have a credible backup that was better in this system with these teammates as recently as last month. And while Bucs once used the first overall draft on Winston and picked up their fifth year option for 2019 before the season, all that would force them to pay Winston after this season would be a harm. His contractual status means we have to think about Winston’s future differently.
Although Fitzpatrick was Benched for Winston earlier this year, the two have not been comparable to each other. While sharing passports in Tampa close to 50-50, Bucs has been much more productive with Fitzpatrick at the center this season:
|QB||Cmp||To||Cmp%||yds||J /||TD||INT||Sack |
|Fitzpatrick  98  144  68.1  1550  1550  ] 10.8  13  5  5.3%  119.3  75.1  Winston  96  148  64.9  1181  8.0||6||10||8.1%||74.7||63.9|
I do not think the difference between the two would be so big forward but It is reasonable to propose that Fitzpatrick is the better quarterback of the two. Their numbers over the last four years have actually been almost identical. Since Winston entered the league, he has posted a match rating of 86.1 and a Total QBR of 56.5. During the same time frame, Fitzpatrick has been good for a passer of 85.4 and a Total QBR of … 56.6.
With Buccaneers, however, Fitz has written a 101.6 pass and a 69.1 Total QBR, and I wonder if he is better suited for this crime, which is designed to scare layers vertically. He has been much more efficient at deep passages, filling 60 percent of his throw 16 plus meters lower ground with an average of 20.1 meters per try. Winston is 45.9 percent and 10.5 meter per deep pass.
The reason Winston was benched was his sales problem. The Florida State product has thrown at least two interceptions in each of its four looks this season, which is impressive considering that he played only half against Bears in week 3 and three quarters against Bengals on Sunday. Winston has thrown 10 picks in just 148 tries. He fumbled four times and lost one.
Watch the 10 intercepts and you may be joking and making excuses. Winston has had two of the picks tipped by pass-rushers on the line of scrimmage. A pass ran out of a defender’s helmet and bounced 10 meters in the air. He seems to have played against linebackers with some of the best hands in league history, considering how players like Aaron Lynch and Jamie Collins managed to catch passing most linebackers would usually tip or drop.
And yet at the same time you can not wrap these throws. Winston had a tapping tipped on the line, but it came to a game where he froze and seemed to be in a striking competition before he got off with the ball. He has repeatedly struggled to recognize line-backers and edge knockers who released late in their pitches, which was a problem at the Lynch election. Throwing over the middle of the field has been an absolute sharp shot. In the third quarter of Sunday, Winston was open, missing receivers by almost seven meters, as was the case with Cameron Brate per NFL’s Next Gen Stats:
Like ESPN’s Trey Wingo excels on Twitter even if you say Jameis will not be this badly ahead, it’s also fair to say that he has always been this one the type of quarterback. There are 17 quarterbacks that have thrown 1,500 tries or more since 2015. Winston’s intercept rate is 3.2 percent and no other quarterback is over 2.7 percent.
You can not blame the players around him either. While you can make a case that Bortles’ games have gotten worse because Jag’s offense about him has broken apart due to damage, Tampa 10 other offensive starters have not missed a game due to injury this season. Bucs has a dominant receiving corps on paper, and the recipients have been much more productive when Fitzpatrick has been at the center.
Tampa’s fast start of the season feels like ancient history. The ESPN Football Power Index gave Tampa Bay a 54.6 percent shot of making it to the postseason after winning their first two matches. Now, after a 1-4-round, Bucs is back to a 5.7 percent chance to play meaningful football in January.
So, what are Buc’s options?
1. Keep Winston in the starting line for the rest of the season and shop Fitzpatrick. The talk before Sunday’s game was how DeSean Jackson had reported a trade from Tampa but you might think that Fitzpatrick might also have had value as veteranbackup who can offer team playoff ambitions a little certainty if their starter would be injured before the fall season . Fitzpatrick has only $ 1.1 million in prorated salary left on its contract, making the Harvard product easy to fit most of the team’s payrolls.
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With Tampa’s final play shocks, it’s most logical to do with the rest of the season to evaluate Winston before the 2019 offseason, when Bucs could choose to play Winston through his fifth year alternative, signing 24-year-old on an extension , trade him to another team or let go of Winston without paying him his fifth year option of $ 20.9 million.  This is High Risk, High Reward Choice. If Winston improves, Bucs will stop feeling good about dressing it with a quarterback that they have known was franchise quarterback material for several seasons. They will not have to devote serious resources to looking for another passer in the draft or through a free agency. They would probably also get a mid-to-late round pick from another team to the 35-year-old free agent Fitzpatrick, who is not very useful on a team that does not go anywhere.
The risk is that Winston’s fifth-year option is guaranteed for damage, which means that Tampa could pay $ 20.9 million if Winston suffered a serious injury and could not pass a physical year in 2019. (The Steelers pays Ryan Shazier 8 $ 7 million in this season under the same contractual structure.) Bucs has $ 25.5 million in crash space next year, including Winston’s fifth-year options on the books, so they could survive if Winston would go down, but NFL organizations are worried to risk eating almost $ 21 million in dead money for someone who can not play.
2. Install Fitzpatrick starting for the rest of the season and bury Winston on the depth chart.
Here is your Low-Reward Low Resolution . Fitzpatrick has been the better quarterback, and it will not mean much to Tampa’s playoff chances, it means a lot to the guys. Both coach Dirk Koetter and general manager Jason Licht would be in line to lose their jobs in a disappointing season. ESPN’s Brian Burke’s hot seat model gave Koetter a 64 percent shot of losing his job with a 4-12 record this season.
By launching Fitzpatrick, Bucs would encounter some kind of moral hazard, where their management would optimize their ability to retain their jobs, even though it is at the expense of the franchise’s long-term prospects. Like Fitzpatrick has played in Tampa, chances are he starts in a perennial career that starts after he won 36 in the November remote control. In the absence of a playoff race, Bucs is better at finding out more about Winston than they play in Fitzpatrick, although the latter increases their chances of approaching .500 to the south.
Jameis Winston now has 74 touchdown passes and 50 interceptions after being No. 1 in 2015. Wesley Hitt / Getty Images
Burying Winston would make sure Bucs was not stuck to pay out his fifth year option 2019 , a problem that may well has led to Jags rewritten Bortles last offseason. While Tampa could instead shop for Winston, I do not anticipate he will have much of a market. Winston’s off-field misbehavior is a non-starter for multiple franchises. Few teams want to risk eating $ 20.9 million for a injured Winston next season, and he would not be much of a bargain at that beat.
His propensity for conversion will also not appeal to teams that may theoretically be looking for a pair of safe hands, such as the Jaguars. The only team that has a competitive record that has no solution to the quarterback or the first round chooses to take snaps are Dolphins, who can theoretically drive Winston if Ryan Tannehill is not close to returning. It is not much of a trading market.
3. Reset Fitzpatrick which is currently starting. This option falls somewhere around moderate risk, low reward . While Fitzpatrick fought in the first half against Steelers and Bears in September, Buccaneers was too aggressive to move on from their intermediate start. He had a 114.4 pass grade and a 75.3 Total QBR when Bucs bent him to Winston in a rough start against Bears, which has one of the best defenses in football when Khalil Mack is healthy.