Green Bay Packers on New England Patriots (-6)
Sun. 11/4, 8:20 p.m. ET
Three Things You Need To Know Before Playing On Green Bay-New England:
1. Due to a two-point loss for the undefeated last Sunday, Green Bay faces another difficult road test when it visits reddish New England on Sunday night. The packs were leading in Los Angeles until a Rams field goal with just over two minutes left on the clock. Green Bay’s Ty Montgomery was instructed by coach to take a knee on the subsequent kickoff return. Instead, he fumbled after taking the ball out of the end zone and lost it after striking just past the 20-yard line. Green Bay had success offensive and scored 27 points against a Rams defense that had allowed only 1
8.3 points per game on average over their first seven games. The Patriots won their fifth straight match on Monday evening in Buffalo with 25-6 points, but the game was closer than the point would indicate. It took New England more than 50 minutes to make an offensive touchdown, and the game was sealed by a 84-yard Devin McCourty ejection return for a fourth-quarter score with the bills driving in an attempt to reduce the lead to less than a landing. Teams that play on a Sunday after being on the way last monday night are 9-15 straight up and 8-16 against the spread since the start of last season, and despite all of the five of these teams they have played the Sunday games at home.
2nd Aaron Rodgers is one of only three NFL quarterbacks (along with Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger) who enter Week 9 on average over 325 fitting turns per game. He will face a New England pass defense that has allowed an average of 328.3 fitting laps per game over his last four races despite one of these games being against friendly quarterback Derek Anderson and a Buffalo offense who is NFL’s only team on average fewer than 150 fitting turns per game. Anderson threw for 287 against New England after looking at only 175 passenger yards the previous week in Indianapolis. NFL road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points completing at least 60% of their attempts to pass are 21-8 against the spread since the beginning of the 2014 season when they came from a shave of three straight games where they achieved an average of at least seven meters per pass attempt.
3rd In the last two seasons, roads that came from a road loss were 14-6 against the spread in the novel game. The packs are 20-9 against the spread on the way under the head coach Mike McCarthy when they come off a loss. Green Bay has also been able to bounce back from near-loss under McCarthy and pass 19-8 ATS after a six-point defeat or less during its rally since early 2006. Although the Packers defense has allowed 817 total laps over its past two games is 6-0 against the spread since the beginning of 2016 when it came to back-to-back games where 375 or more combined turns were allowed. Green Bay have held their opponents on average 14.5 points over the six games and won them an average of 13.5 points per race.
Select: Green Bay +6
Confidence Level: Very High (On a scale of Low / Moderate / High / Very High / Extremely High)