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New studies mark the challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement's climate goals

These figures show the paths needed to make the Paris Agreement's goals a reality. The figures show the carbon dioxide paths for emissions from the United States, the European Union, China, India and the rest of the world from fossil fuels and industrial processes for the following scenarios: a) Global warming below 2 ° C with a 75% probability, with negligible development of engineered sinks and land use change (LUC); b) Global warming below 2 ° C with a 66% probability and negligible development in engineered sinks and LUCs; and (c) global warming below 2 ° C with 75% probability and with scalable development in engineered sinks and LUC. Credit: Jiang et al / AGU New research highlights the "incredible challenge" of reaching the Paris Agreement without intensive action and details of the extreme temperatures on Earth will lead to countries failing to reduce emissions. The world reached an agreement in December 2015 to limit greenhouse gas emissions with the aim of avoiding a 2-degree Celsius increase in average global temperature over pre-industrial levels. Ideally, the agreement's goal is to limit this increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The United States announced to the United Nations in August 2018 that it intended to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and join Syria as one of only two countries in the world not party to the Treaty. Two new studies published in AGU magazines Geophysical Research Letters and Earth's Future now show that some of the goals set out in the agreement may…

These figures show the paths needed to make the Paris Agreement’s goals a reality. The figures show the carbon dioxide paths for emissions from the United States, the European Union, China, India and the rest of the world from fossil fuels and industrial processes for the following scenarios: a) Global warming below 2 ° C with a 75% probability, with negligible development of engineered sinks and land use change (LUC); b) Global warming below 2 ° C with a 66% probability and negligible development in engineered sinks and LUCs; and (c) global warming below 2 ° C with 75% probability and with scalable development in engineered sinks and LUC. Credit: Jiang et al / AGU

New research highlights the “incredible challenge” of reaching the Paris Agreement without intensive action and details of the extreme temperatures on Earth will lead to countries failing to reduce emissions.

The world reached an agreement in December 2015 to limit greenhouse gas emissions with the aim of avoiding a 2-degree Celsius increase in average global temperature over pre-industrial levels. Ideally, the agreement’s goal is to limit this increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The United States announced to the United Nations in August 2018 that it intended to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and join Syria as one of only two countries in the world not party to the Treaty.

Two new studies published in AGU magazines Geophysical Research Letters and Earth’s Future now show that some of the goals set out in the agreement may be difficult to reach without much victims.

The new study shows that future climate growth is dependent on the political decisions of large issuers and that, although the major issuers would strengthen their commitments to reduce emissions, the rest of the world would immediately reduce their greenhouse gases to zero in order to achieve Paris in 2015 goal.

Simply put, these papers highlight the incredible challenge presented by the Paris Agreement of 2015 to the world, “says Dáithí Stone, climate researcher with the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, a crown-owned New Zealand research company that was not involved in anything. of the studies

Importance of major issuers

The first study, published in AGU’s Geophysical Research Letters found none of the world’s major carbon emissions, including the United States, China and the European Union, has made commitments to adapt to limited climate warnings to a 2-degree Celsius increase over pre-industrial levels. [19659005] If these major issuers fail to make stronger political changes that reduce their emissions more significantly, specific parts of the world will Eastern North America and Central Europe experience periods of extreme temperatures, according to it new study.

“What is happening now, and it plays a role at the level of the issuer,” says Sophie Lewis, associate professor at the University of New South Wales and lead author of the new study.

She and her co-authors used models of projecting future climate patterns in some parts of the world to show how the failure of these high-emitting countries would directly lead to problems there.

In many regions of the world, future extreme temperature events are dependent on current and future carbon dioxide emissions reductions adopted by large issuers, according to the new research. For example, if the United States does not limit the country’s emissions, it will lead directly to extreme temperatures in places such as Central Europe and East North America.

Lewis said not all future effects are clear, but data is good enough for Central Europe and East North America to show how an average world temperature increase would directly affect these regions.

“In Central Europe it was really clear that there was so much to gain by limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 degrees,” she said.

While Lewis said it will exist in all countries in the future to limit climate impact, the world’s high-emitting regions have an important role in leading reductions. By carrying out stronger climate rewards, the large issuers can reduce the frequency of future extremities and their own calculated contributions to these temperature surfaces, noted the study’s authors.

Studies like this are important because they can be used in the future to hold large emitters responsible for not limiting the effects of climate change, according to the study’s authors.

“Extended standard methods to evaluate the increased risk of extreme events due to climate change, they quantify the contribution of individual major carbon-emitting countries to future risk increases,” said Michael Wehner, a senior staff researcher at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory run by the University. of California, who was not involved in any of the recent studies.

“As the authors point out, this gives a method of assigning responsibility for losses and damage during extreme weather events,” Wehner says.

The tough future of developing countries

In a second study, published in Earth’s Future researchers found that it came-all-over The global climate limitation method as outlined in the Paris Agreement masks a major challenge for developing countries.

Although the United States, China, the European Union and India increased their contribution to limiting emissions, the rest of the world would have to reduce to near zero emissions by 2030 in order for the planet to reach its goal of limiting the rise in temperature from pre-industrial times to 1.5 degrees Celsius according to the new study.

The authors of the latest study said that achieving this goal would not be technically, politically or socially feasible for many of the world’s countries.

“It’s very easy to talk about the global average. But as soon as you peel back a layer of onion at country level, these rules no longer apply,” says Glen Peters, research director of the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO) in Norway. and a co-author of the second study.

He said the high-emitting countries have already done much of the damage in terms of emissions, while the rest of the world is now expected to limit its industrial growth and development to achieve global emissions targets. 19659005] “The cake is so small that you will basically starve developing countries if there is no large increase (in emissions reductions) from countries like the United States,” he said.

According to Wehner, the “inequality of global warming between the developed and developing countries” is revealed by both new studies.

“Undoubtedly, in the absence of new energy technologies, there would be significant negative consequences for the modernization of developing countries and poverty reduction if y were obliged to reduce emissions under [Peters’ paper],” he said.

A Way Forward

Peters, co-author of the paper in The Future of Earth said while his findings are cruel, the world should not give up on reaching emission targets. He said historically high-emitting countries like the US and parts of Europe should commit more reductions than developing countries to compensate for past emissions.

Peters and his co-authors argue that to meet the goals of Paris Agreements, leading countries need to develop low?, Zero? or even negative? CO2 emissions technology that can be exploited on a large scale in developing countries.

Stone, with the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said Peter’s study shows that no country can slip into the goal of meeting climate goals.

“It’s hard to argue against its conclusion that we need to start seriously considering options like solar geoengineering, with all the risks that make the world serious about achieving the Paris Agreement goals,” he said.


Emissions are increasing too high despite the reduction targets set before the Paris negotiations


More information:
Sophie C. Lewis et al. Assessment of grants from major emitters Paris-Era’s decision on future temperatures, Geophysical research letter (2019). DOI: 10, 1029 / 2018GL081608

Sophie C. Lewis et al. Assessment of grants from major emitters Paris-Era’s decision on future temperatures, Geophysical research letter (2019). DOI: 10, 1029 / 2018GL081608

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New studies mark the challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate goals (2019, 23 April)
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