So let's try to get this straight: we're all excited that Nathan Eovaldi is back with Red Sox. Red Sox…
So let’s try to get this straight: we’re all excited that Nathan Eovaldi is back with Red Sox. Red Sox is a big marketplace with a pile of money that can afford to pay for players. And the Eovaldi contract should not stop Red Sox from doing any business ahead.
But if we talk about value – and use historical compositions – Eovaldi is now significantly overpaid.
If you missed it, Eovaldi joined a $ 67.5 million four-year deal on Thursday, paying him an average of $ 16.875 million per season. In the baseball’s current economic climate, there is a reasonable amount for someone who projects to be a mid-of-the-rotation starter. The problem is that Eovaldi really has not been like this in his career, so what Red Sox is investing in is the future.
And that’s good.
So, let’s not let us wonder what Eovaldi has been to this point in his career: a journeyman who has had good things but never the ability to consistently produce. Since his career in 201
1, Eovaldi has gone 44-53 with a 4.16 ERA in 850 innings. Since profits and losses can largely be a product of ongoing support, let’s focus on the two statistics that play the greater role – ERA and Inning pitched.
Using Eovaldi’s total values for innings (850) and ERA (4.13) as the midpoint parameters for pots from 2011-2018 with between 800-900 innings and ERA between 4.00 and 4.25. Using baseball-reference.com, here’s the list we came to:
(Screenshot / Baseball-Reference.com)
Now, purely for the sake of argument, let’s examine the pay for these players. We have listed both the highest single season AAV (average annual value) for each player in addition to his biggest contract. Here are what we found:
|Highest AAV||Biggest Contract|
|Hector Santiago||$ 8 Million||1 Year / $ 8 Million|
|Brandon McCarthy||$ 12 Million||4 years / $ 48 Million|
|Aaron Harang||$ 9.125 million||4 years / $ 36.5 million|
|Miguel Gonzalez||$ 5.9 million||1 year / $ 5.9 million|
|Dillon Give||$ 5.3 million||1 year / $ 5.3 million|
|Kevin Gausman||$ 5.6 million||1 year / $ 5.6 million|
|Mike Fiers  $ 6 million||1 year / $ 6 million|
|Scott Feldman||$ 10 Million||3 Years / $ 30 Million|
|Nathan Eovaldi||$ 16.875 Million |
$ 16.875 Million
|4 years / $ 67.500.000|
|Jorge De La Rosa||$ 12.5 million||2 years $ 25 million|
OK, so do you see what we get here? In the above list, no one is even close to Eovaldi – either in terms of AAV or contract length and value. And if we add all of offers to anyone other than Eovaldi, we’ll get up with nine players, 18 years and $ 170.3 million, an average of about $ 9.5 million per season.
Translation: For the nine other players on the list, the average deal is two years and about 19 million dollars.
Eovaldi got four years and 67.5 million dollars.
Can anyone honestly say that Red Sox did anything but too much?
You can hear Tony Massarotti weekdays from 2-6pm EST on the Felger & Massarotti program. Follow him on Twitter @ TonyMassarotti.