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MLB – Cy Youngs for Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell reflects the impact of the analysis

November 15, 2018 Sports 2 Views On April 10, Jacob deGrom released four runs in six innings in a no-decision…

On April 10, Jacob deGrom released four runs in six innings in a no-decision against Marlins in his third start of 2018. All four runs came in fifth inning. With one out, Yadiel Rivera hit a chopper over the third base and the ball popped out from Todd Frazier’s glove for an infield single. Derek Dietrich hit the next pitch for a goalkeeper single in the right-hand field. Miguel Rojas followed with a grounder in the hole; Frazier Pigeon, but it looked off his glove for another infield single. After a victim, Justin Bour flies a quick ball up and away to the opposite field, the ball just clearing the fence in the left field for a two-run homer.

  • If Mets aces win the NL Cy Young Award on Wednesday –

  • When the hardware is handed out this week, here’s what will be next for the baseball’s best players.

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It was deGrom’s worst excursion of the season.

The 30-year-old right-hand man of New York Mets would make 29 more starts and allow three runs or fewer in each of them. He finished the season with a stretch of 24 starting in a row where he beat at least six innings and got three runs or less, a full-time record. Basically, the man has not had a bad start all season, so even though he finished with just 10 wins, it’s not surprising that deGrom is your national league Cy Young winner.

He finished the 10-9 season with a 1.70 ERA, the biggest wins ever for a Cy Young-winning startup – Fernando Valenzuela had 13 for Dodgers in the 1981 stretch shortened season and Felix Hernandez won 13 for Mariners 2010. For fifteen Years ago, deGrom may not win, but voters have learned not to overload winnings, as they did in 2005 when Bartolo Colon (21-8, 3,48 ERA, 157 strikes) beat out Johan Santana (16-7, 2.87 ERA, 238 strike) for the American League Cy Young Honors.

Mets gave deGrom an average 3.5 game support per game. Four times he did not allow to run and went away with a no decision (not including a one-inning start May 13). He allowed a run of 10 starts and went only 4-2 in those games. He had two runs five times and had a lost record in these games (2-3). So ignore the win-loss record – deGrom was brilliant and dominant. Since the pile was lowered in 1969, he became only the sixth church to finish with a sub 2.00 ERA and at least 250 strikeouts, who joined Tom Seaver (1971), Vida Blue (1971), Steve Carlton (1972), Dwight Gooden (1985) and Pedro Martinez (1997 and 2000).

Jacob deGrom won the NL Cy Young Award because of his performance at height, not his lack of running support. Patrick Gorski / USA TODAY SPORTS

Over in the US league, Tampa Bay Ray’s left-wing Snell had a breakout season, ending 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA and .178 average. He only became the fourth AL starter in the designated hitter season, with a sub-2.00 ERA (joined Martinez, Ron Guidry and Roger Clemens) and over his 11 outings after a short disability list for axial fatigue he went 9 -0 winning nine starts in a row – with a 1.17 ERA. Fast starts with an average 95.8mph fastball and mixed in a wipeout curveball and wipeout slider (plus a change). Against the two break balls, the batter hit .115 and kicked 58 percent of the time in the game that ended with these places. Good luck.

The big course against Snell as Cy Young winner: He only raised 180/3 innings, the smallest for a Cy Young-winning starter in a battle period. Only Clayton Kershaw, when he scored 198/3 innings 2014, had won as a starter and threw less than 200 innings. Runner-up Justin Verlander scored 33 thirds more innings, but the performance gap was big enough to make Snell feel the right choice. It would have been a tough debate if Verlander had thrown up to 230 innings, or if we compared Chris Sale – who beat 155 innings and did not qualify for the ERA title – to Verlander.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the year’s votes is that while deGrom and Snell had simple wins in the vote, they were not unanimous best pots through the advanced metrics. In NL, deGrom had a comfortable margin over Max Scherzer in FanGraphs WAR (8.8 to 7.2), but Baseball-Reference WAR tells another story:

Aaron Nola: 10.5
deGrom: 8.6
Scherzer : 8.8

According to, Nola – who finished 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA over 212/3 innings – was one of the biggest teens in the latest story, the best since Randy Johnson 2002 and the 10th – best since the fall was lowered in 1969. His 10.5 WAR that BR dwarfs his 5.6 WAR on FanGraphs.

In all, Snell Sale and Verlander led in the Baseball-Reference WAR, but somehow only ranked eighth in FanGraphs WAR: [19659017] ESPN’s award-winning Sunday morning sports magazine show with the biggest names and best stories in sport.
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Verlander: 6.8
Sales: 6.5
Gerrit Cole: 6.3
Trevor Bauer: 6.0
Luis Severino: 5.7
Corey Kluber: 5.6
Carlos Carrasco: 5.1
Quick: 4.6

For those who question WAR, the difference in value for Nola and Quick feed for their arguments, although they are relatively unique cases. So what is happening?

Of course, the sites calculate their pitching WAR very differently. FanGraphs generally looks at innings, strikeouts, walks and home runs, makes a park adjustment and comes to a value. It ignores actual runs allowed or hits allowed. Baseball-Reference starts with runs allowed and makes adjustments to the quality of resistance, team defense and parkfactor.

Baseball Reference Loves Nola, to a large extent, because it gives him a great fit for Philly’s bad defense – – 0.64 runs per nine innings. B-R estimates that Phillie’s defense costs Nola about 15 runs, which would let his runs be allowed from 57 to 42. Nola hit a neutral park while DeGrom held in a pot-paved park, so it also increases the gap between the two. Perhaps tried Phillie’s defense Nola; On the other hand, his .254 BABIP was linked to the fourth lowest among beginners, so balls in play were transformed into a large proportion of time.

FanGraphs, however, sees that DeGrom had a higher strike rate and lower walk and home courses and considered that he had the very superior season. Their calculations do not affect Nola’s hit or left base rate or the fact that allowed fewer runs than expected, as he smashed at a .129 average with runners in point position.

For similar reasons, FanGraphs do not see Snell as valuable as other AL launchers. Snell had an even lower BABIP than Nola at .242. His walking speed was a bit high, almost twice as big as at Verlander. His 88 percent string was the highest in the majors – actually the highest, through FanGraphs, since John Candelaria in 1977.

As much as Nola was in runner-up, Snell was even better: Batter’s hit .088 against him (10-for -114). Baseball Reference has game-by-game data back to 1954, and it’s the lowest record on the record for at least 100 bats with RISP (Nolas .129 mark is bound for seventh lowest, with those between all relievers).

Fast will surely not achieve that number again in 2019. But he did it in 2018 and that is why he is the Cy Young winner. Perhaps Nola had a historic season. However, they are deGrom that goes away with the hardware.

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