After a long election, it’s only a race where results remain in serious doubt: North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District. The State Electoral Commission has refused to certify the narrow 905 voting rights that the Republican, Mark Harris, holds over Democrat, Dan McCready, and investigates allegations of absent voting fraud.
A variety of evidence is in accordance with an absentee voting schedule in the Blades and Robeson Counties; that is, a concerted effort to convince voters to return their absentee votes, possibly unsealed, paid operations, which may have changed or discarded.
A woman who helped to collect voices, Ginger Eason, told a local news station that she was paid to collect the polls and did not actually return these polls to the state. Instead, she said that she gave them L. McCrae Dowless Jr., a Harris campaign contractor.
The nationwide electoral data, which is among the best in the country, complies with the described pattern.
The blades and Robeson Counties had unusually high numbers of absentee polls. They also had an unusually high number of voters who did not leave their absentee votes. Put it together, and the two counties stand out for anomally high number of voters who requested polls and never voted.
The results themselves also agree with the possibility that the deviations in absentee have had an effect on the election results. This is because in the entire ninth district, McCready made an average of 30 points better in the absent votes than in votes cast. The sheets are the only county where Mr McCready made worse in the voting story, and Robeson was the county where Mr McCready had the slightest overprice of just six points. The political and demographic characteristics of the returned absentee vote in Robeson and the Bladen Counties do not look unusual Republican.
However, it is difficult to assess the effect of the result on the result.
For illustrative purposes, it may be assumed that voters should have returned voting at the same rate as everywhere (which would add several hundred absentee votes to a total) and assume that the total absentee vote would have been 30 points more democratic than the non- absentee voting, as was the case in the rest of the district. This estimate of the accounts would provide a net worth of 700 votes for Mr McCready and to delete most of Harris Harris 905 voting rights.
But it must be emphasized that this is no more than a rough estimate for illustrative purposes. The rate of absenteeism and democratic strength varied greatly from county to county. Using this approach to estimate what awaiting vote would be in other counties would often be enough to get a rather different picture of this competition, which was the third seal of all house contests in 2018.
There are several The counties where the pending voting and the democratic absence overestimated were high enough for McCready to have had 900 additional votes (say Union County) or where he would have netted just a few hundred votes (say Scotland’s county) guessing the outcome with the same assumptions as described above for the blades and robeson.
It is hard to say what is more remarkable: that such a small anomaly can be seen in the voting pattern, or that it is so difficult to tell if this was crucial in the race.
In other states, a similar pattern can be much harder to notice. This is because North Carolina has better publicly available election data than just elsewhere. The sheets and Robeson Counties are just one seventh of N in, and North Carolina’s absentee poll is small as part of the overall vote. A few hundred voices appear in such a small pool. It would be much more difficult to find out if such an effort had spread throughout the district, or if the voter voted, there was a greater proportion of votes cast, as is the case in many states.