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Man, Vance Joseph, Really Messed That One Up

Photo: Justin Edmonds (Getty) It was almost 48 hours since Broncos's main coach Vance Joseph did what could have been this season's worst coaching decision (not Nathan Peterman, the Starting Quarterback Division). But now it's maths to let us know how brutal Joseph's reading conversation really was. To review: At 4: 39 left on Saturday night and subsequent 17-13, Broncos met a fourth and 1 from Brown's 6- farm line. Instead of going to it – even after back-to-back drove back, Phillip Lindsay picked up just two combined laps – Joseph chose to kick a field goal. Which meant that instead of trying to get a farm just six feet from the end zone, Joseph chose to put his team in a position to stop and score again in a lowscore game. Here, Joseph explains himself: "I trust our defense to stay there" said Joseph and added that he had a timeout left plus two minute warning when he actually had two. But because it would have given Broncos his best chance to win, according to analysts EdjSports, who estimated that the field goal put Broncos game-winning chance (GWC) of 26.7 percent. Going for it would have given Denver a GWC of 59.8 percent. What difference is that? As EdjSports explained on his blog (emphasize mine): The crime only needed 1 farm to create a first-and-a-goal. If it succeeded, it gave them the opportunity to run more watch with several opportunities to make a fast run. Importantly, a successful conversion…

Photo: Justin Edmonds (Getty)

It was almost 48 hours since Broncos’s main coach Vance Joseph did what could have been this season’s worst coaching decision (not Nathan Peterman, the Starting Quarterback Division). But now it’s maths to let us know how brutal Joseph’s reading conversation really was.

To review: At 4: 39 left on Saturday night and subsequent 17-13, Broncos met a fourth and 1 from Brown’s 6- farm line. Instead of going to it – even after back-to-back drove back, Phillip Lindsay picked up just two combined laps – Joseph chose to kick a field goal. Which meant that instead of trying to get a farm just six feet from the end zone, Joseph chose to put his team in a position to stop and score again in a lowscore game.

Here, Joseph explains himself:

“I trust our defense to stay there” said Joseph and added that he had a timeout left plus two minute warning when he actually had two. But because it would have given Broncos his best chance to win, according to analysts EdjSports, who estimated that the field goal put Broncos game-winning chance (GWC) of 26.7 percent. Going for it would have given Denver a GWC of 59.8 percent. What difference is that?

As EdjSports explained on his blog (emphasize mine):

The crime only needed 1 farm to create a first-and-a-goal. If it succeeded, it gave them the opportunity to run more watch with several opportunities to make a fast run. Importantly, a successful conversion followed by a touchdown gives Broncos a way to winning that does not require additional possession. The sure option hopes, or may assume, Browns will not do again, which is not certain. An unsuccessful fourth down conversion also has residual value in terms of field position and the ability to regain possession through security. All these factors contribute to the extent of this error An error that takes place as is the worst playback error on the disc .

EdjSport’s data only dates back to 2011, but their point can not be more crystal clear. Joseph’s thinking could have seemed sound in an earlier era, but it’s completely prehistoric in the modern NFL, where data analysis increasingly affects all kinds of decisions on the ground.

Broncos finally got the ball back, but only 1: 49 stopped and they had to start on their own. They came to the midfield before turning the ball over to the falls and ending the game. Denver had won three in a row and was back in the playoff hunt; Saturday night’s loss in combination with Titan’s victory against the giants on Sunday eliminated Broncos from subsequent battle. Decisions like these are what trainers get fired and considering today’s report by Woody Paige about how GM John Elway wanted to bring Mike Shanahan out of mothballs to replace Joseph after the last season, it does not sound like Elway has a solid plan for the future of the franchise.

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