Overreaction to Andrew Luck was a 2017 thing, remember? He would be back well for training camps. He would be back for the season’s start, for week 2, for the second half … too many he-was-gonnas to count. Luck did not play in 2017, and the overreactions, as they do, ratcheted up. He’s done. He will never be the same.
Ah, we were all so young and naive.
It’s 2018, about 11 weeks, and it’s time to start overreaching Luck in the other direction. Andrew, congratulations. You are the leading item in this week’s OVERREAKTION MONDAY column.
The Playoff image became a little clearer at the top, while the wildcard slots now seem quite dusty. NFL Nation dives into week 11.
Ten games in the 2018 season are in the books, but we still have no idea how NFC East will shake out.
Andrew Luck is a legitimate MVP candidate
Luck threw three touchdown passes on Sunday victory over a Tennessee Titans team breaking Tom Brady a week earlier. It is the seventh game in a row where he threw at least three touchdown passes. Last time he had a singles QBR under 92 (on a scale from 0 to 100, remember) was October 14th. The last time he took a bag was October 4th. The colts, which would be one of the worst teams in the league, are 5-5 and in the AFC wildcard picture.
Graziano: s dom NOT A TRANSACTION . I’m not saying he’s a leading candidate thinking of you. There are plenty of them, from Patrick Mahomes to Drew Brees to Todd Gurley to Ben Roethlisberger. If the season ended today, I could not advocate Luck as winner of the MVP award. But how can he not be in the discussion at this time? Just Mahomes have thrown more touchdown passes. Only Brees, Mahomes, Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky were ranked before happiness in total QBR from Sunday morning, and he went up. Colts won only four matches last year without him and already has five wins this year. Certainly there are other factors (the least is his career-best passport), but it’s hard to say that Luck’s return was not valuable to his team. Unless otherwise, he looks like a frontrunner for the Comeback Player of the Year.
Mike Clay explains why Lamar Jackson and Gus Edward’s trends up for fantasy bosses and why Deshaun Watson loses value after week 11.
Joe Flacco has played his last snap for Ravens  Rookie Lamar Jackson got his first start at the quarterback, and Ravens broke a three-player lane. Coincidence? That’s the key issue when considering what to do about Flacco when he comes back from his hip injury. The crime obviously looks very different with Jackson who drives it than it did with Flacco who drove it, but it’s not like Baltimore lights the world with Flacco behind the center. They are still in the playoff hunt, with other jobs than Flaccos on the line, and must decide which guy gives them the best chance to win over their last six games.
Graziano’s judgment: ] overreaction . I’m a big Jackson fan and think he’ll be Baltimore’s starter next year. My understanding is that they have worked with a new crime centered more on Jackson’s skill, which will debut with Jackson-as-starter. But it is clear that it is not clear yet, and Sunday’s playing field was designed for a guy who still appears, especially as a passer. It’s hard to imagine that Baltimore is playing in this year’s final play by running the ball 54 times again and throwing it 19. If Flacco’s hip makes him come back, I say he’ll start again this year before the team goes on to the offseason. 19659018] The Saints Will Not Lose Again until September 9th
All respect for this week’s brilliant Monday Night Football matchup, but what’s happening in New Orleans has to make the rest of the league wonder why it’s even trying. The Saints blew out the Super Bowl champion Eagles 48-7 on Sunday, one week after losing 51 points in Bengals and two weeks after losing 45 points on the previously undefeated Rams. New Orleans has won nine games in a row, since the loss of the season for Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bucs, and the Saints play as if that game made them angry with the world.
Graziano: 19659010] NOT A TRANSACTION . Again, the Saints, my preseason was picking to win everything, and I see no need to move that pick at this point. The only reason to believe the Saints will not run on the table is that their schedule is quite tough. They still have to play the almost as hot-as-they-are Steelers, plus second-place Panthers twice in their last three games. Plus, they have a trip to Dallas, where the cowboys are 3-1 this year. The probability rules dictate that they will not win all the tough matches, not to mention any match games and Super Bowl. But five weeks ago, I do not think the probability rules say they would have a mean of 39.6 points a game while sweeping through the Ravens / Vikings / Rams / Bengals / Eagles stretch in their schedule. The Saints do not seem to care much about probability … or something else right now.
Houston Texans will get a first round bye
The only team with a longer winning stretch than Texan’s current seven is … yes the Saints. With whom we just treated. Houston’s last victory came on Sunday in Washington after Alex Smith hit a broken leg, Colt McCoy took Washington back to take charge. In the Fairbairn, a 54-meter field goal scored halfway through the fourth quarter and Dustin Hopkins’ 62-yards game-winning attempt fell short. The Texans are 7-3 and two games away from the rest of AFC South. Four of their remaining six matches – including the next three – are at home and they do not play another team all year that currently has a winning record.
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Graziano’s judgment: OVERREAKTION ]. Full tip of the cover for a seven-game winning strike. It deserves respect. It’s hard to win in NFL and it’s hard to win literally every week . But Texan’s streak is not Saints’ streak. It includes two overtime wins – one where Colts went fourth in his own overtime territory – and a missed Broncos goal. Houston’s 34-point difference is worse than any other NFL division leader but Washington, so it’s not as if they dominate teams. Plus, Chiefs and Steelers both currently have better records and patriots are the same as the Texans do. Of these teams, what two do you expect to finish after Houston when it’s all said and done?
Week 11 started with a thriller in Seattle, but the butt end of it went to Green Bay, which lost to fall to 4-5-1 and 2.5 matches from first place. Rodgers has written miracles before, so it can not be ruled out. But with a 1-1-1 split record, both Chicago and Minnesota ahead of them and their remaining matches against these two teams along the way, Packers is in serious danger of losing the playoff for a second consecutive year. 19659002] Graziano’s judgment: NOT AN OVERTRACT . It’s unfortunately the season when we have to start wondering where the six to eight annual head-coaching openings will pop up. And if Packers does not get into the playoffs in any way, the speculation among those in the league follows these things that Green Bay will move on from Mike McCarthy after 13 years, six division titles and a Super Bowl victory. If that happens, it’s not crazy to imagine that McCarthy moves directly into another head coaching job of La Andy Reid in 2013. Brown’s front office is loaded with former Green Bay guys – just saying – and that job is already open.