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Iran and trading partners will find ways to postpone sanctions, analysts say: NPR

Part of Pardi's petrochemical complexes in Assaluyeh, on the Persian Gulf, north coast. The United States has resumed sanctions aimed…

Part of Pardi’s petrochemical complexes in Assaluyeh, on the Persian Gulf, north coast. The United States has resumed sanctions aimed at Iran’s economy.

Iran’s presidency via AP

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Iran’s presidency via AP

Part of Pardi’s petrochemical complexes in Assaluyeh, on the Persian Gulf, north coast. The United States has resumed sanctions aimed at Iran’s economy.

Iran’s presidency via AP

The trumpet administration hopes the severe sanctions imposed on Iran’s oil, shipping and banking industry will deepen its economy and force it to negotiate a new nuclear weapon trade.

But analysts point out that while such financial penalties can be convincing there are also ways to circumvent them.

“There will always be open and secret activities for working around sanctions, eliminating sanctions or avoiding them,” said Dan Wager, a global sanction expert at LexisNexis Risk Solutions consulting firm. “It’s been a long time.”

Iran issued global sanctions in the years to 2016, when a deal with the United States and other world powers gave the country financial relief in exchange for restricting Tehran’s nuclear programs. President Trump was unilaterally hit by the multinational agreement and put a series of US sanctions back on Iran.

Wager says that many of the skull penance techniques are also used for money laundering, including use of shell companies, freight forwarders or other intermediaries to hide the origin of the goods or destination. He points to Iran’s efforts to acquire aircraft parts and components – something Iran needs critical to maintain its aging aircraft.

“There is a large network of individuals who are going to a company providing aircraft parts, engine parts, landing gear, avionics and electronics, and they will acquire them and represent that these goods are shipped to and paid by someone in a country where it is allowed, “he says. “When the goods are sent to it, they are forwarded to Iran.”

It is harder to work around oil strikes, as crude oil must be transported by large tankers in open water. But Iran still found ways to do it during the latest round of international sanctions, according to Peter Harrell, an alternate senior with the Center for a New American Security, a tank in Washington DC

“You saw Iran has its oil tanker quenched the tracking information They would like to take these very pitiful shipping companies to try to hide their Iranian tankers. They change their flag and they change their name … tactics that a ship can use to hide its origin, “he says.

Today, Harrell, who worked on sanctions at the state department under the Obama administration, makes it easier to track Iranian oil tankers using satellites.

The US government can also look at financial transactions around the world to identify Iranian oil transactions. Elizabeth Rosenberg, a former Sanctions Officer at the Ministry of Finance, said that it will help track – and punish – any company or country doing business with the Iranians, not just the oil buyers.

“They could also go for the refineries, Säger Rosenberg.” Who do the other refineries with oil, who are their partners and creditors? Shipping companies, shipping lines, brokers, which concern them. The web is very wide here, “she adds.

Iran exported an average of 2.5 million oil per day before the US pulled out of the deal in May. US officials say the figure has fallen almost half.

Trump Administration wants Iran’s oil exports – the country’s key economic engine and source of tax revenues – to be null and void saying that it will punish any country or company that continues to trade with Iran.

The other signatories to Iran’s nuclear agreements include China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom many of these and other nations want to hold the agreement.

Earlier this month, the United States granted temporary exceptions to China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey, so that they could continue to buy Iranian oil without consequences for six months.

Harrell says that energy-intensive nations are willing to risk sanctions that can reduce their access to US markets. He says that the countries can use small businesses or banks to do the transactions.

“So you could see countries like China importing oil – instead of the purchase of oil by a large large Chinese company that has a lot of business in the United States, it will be bought by a small company that does not really do any business in the United States and if it is sanctioned, so what does he say.

Some methods of avoiding sanctions fall into a gray zone, like keeping payments on a barring account, did something India last time Iran was sanctioned. India and China were also involved in a swap agreement where Iranian oil could be exchanged for industrial machines.

The European Union is also looking to create a system for buying Iranian oil that is not using US dollars or is running through the US banking system. The special purpose of the vehicle has not yet been shaped since major European companies are afraid of managing the Trump administration, “said Wager, with LexisNexis Risk Solutions.

“It is certain that someone from there intentionally violates these sanctions will be directed by US regulatory authorities,” said Wager.

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