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Iowa 2020 vote: Biden, Sanders, O & # 39; Rourke led the Democratic Caucus field

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the preferred candidate for almost one third of some of the most influential voters in 2020 Democratic Primary: Iowa Democrats who will definitely or probably participate in the February Kaucus. According to a Des Moines Register / CNN / Mediacom survey – the first of the 2020 season – Joe Biden is the top choice for 32 percent of Iowa Democrats. Sen Bernie Sanders comes in second with 19 percent, while outgoing Texas Rep. Beto O & # 39; Rourke took third with 11 percent. No other candidate broke double numbers, although late Elizabeth Warren raised 8 percent and late Kamala Harris 5 percent ("insecure" received 6 percent). All this could easily change, though: An early 201 5 survey had Sanders as the best choice of only 5 percent of likely 2016 caucus goers – he continued to win 49.59 percent of the vote. Given other choices, Biden was the first or second pick of 50 percent of respondents, while only 8 percent said they could never "support" him to president, the lowest number on the list. While none of the top preference goats have actually announced their nominations, Biden thinks about it and says he plans to determine the next two months. Sanders told Warren in a recent meeting that he is likely to run, according to the New York Times. Iowa Caucus-goers – in part because of being the first actual electorate from any US state to wants to be president –…

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the preferred candidate for almost one third of some of the most influential voters in 2020 Democratic Primary: Iowa Democrats who will definitely or probably participate in the February Kaucus.

According to a Des Moines Register / CNN / Mediacom survey – the first of the 2020 season – Joe Biden is the top choice for 32 percent of Iowa Democrats. Sen Bernie Sanders comes in second with 19 percent, while outgoing Texas Rep. Beto O & # 39; Rourke took third with 11 percent. No other candidate broke double numbers, although late Elizabeth Warren raised 8 percent and late Kamala Harris 5 percent (“insecure” received 6 percent). All this could easily change, though: An early 201

5 survey had Sanders as the best choice of only 5 percent of likely 2016 caucus goers – he continued to win 49.59 percent of the vote.

Given other choices, Biden was the first or second pick of 50 percent of respondents, while only 8 percent said they could never “support” him to president, the lowest number on the list. While none of the top preference goats have actually announced their nominations, Biden thinks about it and says he plans to determine the next two months. Sanders told Warren in a recent meeting that he is likely to run, according to the New York Times.

Iowa Caucus-goers – in part because of being the first actual electorate from any US state to wants to be president – seems to be “hugely important” to decide who the presidential election nominees will be.

And many of these “very important” voters seek a candidate with experience and eligibility. Of the respondents, 49 percent say the right candidate to take on President Donald Trump should be a “crossed political hand” (36 percent says “Newcomer”, while 15 percent is uncertain). More than half say it’s more important that the candidate has a strong chance of defeating Trump than sharing their positions on major issues (40 percent said the reverse).

This preference for an old hand is reflected in the two top picks, with Biden and Sanders all in politics for decades, and both have run for the democratic nomination before (Biden 1988 and 2008 and Sanders in 2016). Both men are in their late 70s and will be 77 and 79 respectively when the presidential 2020 rolls.

Although she was not on the list, respondents asked if adding First Lady Michelle Obama in the list would add or weaken the race: 76 percent said add . When asked the same question about Hillary Clinton and Oprah Winfrey, respondents responded at a rate of 72 and 55 percent, respectively.

The investigation of 455 determined or probable democratic caucus goers was conducted by West Des Moines-based Selzer & Company from 10 to 13 December. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

2020 is official here

Although this is just a survey of democrats in a 14-month kaucus state, this survey is an important indicator of the 2020 nomination landscape. As Vox Andrew Prokop declared in 2014, caucus is considered highly predictable with the Iowa Democratic caucus winner who is often doing the nomination – as they have in each controversial primary season since 2000:

And more importantly, although the Iowa victory does not end win nomination at the end, state results can dramatically shake up the presidential competition – knock some candidates out of the race altogether while others rise to the top level in the political elite’s eyes and future voters.

A number of factors are about making Iowa caucus so influential, from the media hype (“The winners get a lot of excited coverage, but losers are reflection,” explains Prokop) to donors and activists (who “Look at Iowa results for to assess whether the candidates they support are still profitable “).

It is mutually reinforcing: the Iowa causos are important because the media, the candidates and the political world more generally treat their results as much as important to determine who can win. This survey – and this post – is part of the self-reinforcing process.

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