WASHINGTON – At the beginning of the 2018 middle, the head of the Supreme Republican super-PAC had the task of…
WASHINGTON – At the beginning of the 2018 middle, the head of the Supreme Republican super-PAC had the task of saving the GOP majority a strong message.
“There is no positive outcome in November unless we show what we are doing taxes for the middle class and work to make their lives better,” wrote Corry Bliss, Head of Congress Management Fund, in a Januaryimemo .
But Republicans did not take his advice. Even his own super PAC did not fully take his advice. The Congressional Leadership Fund was one of the first branches of the GOP campaign to largely abandon tax breaks and instead run on fear, rage and cultural war problems, making it a special choice in 1
9659003 in the Pennsylvania 18th Congressional District.
Failing to take it counsel – making tax cuts popular and trying to run on that popularity – may have sealed the fate of GOP. Although Republicans spelled democrats in many districts that Donald Trump won in 2016, the GOP could not stop Democrats from flipping many of the districts Hillary Clinton took two years ago. A thriving economy and greater paycheck would help Republicans in these districts, often in the upper crust suburbs. Instead, it was not enough.
Almost every Republican interviewed for this story agreed that the party could have done a better job selling the tax laws. But the Democrats claim that the problem was politics: Voters just did not buy the tax cuts that the rich drops to the middle class.
“You may be able to sell New Coke,” said Jesse Ferguson, a democratic strategist who has helped to march tax on tax breaks. “You can not sell New Arsenic. The problem here was not the campaign. That was the policy.”
When the GOP ruled out the tax law, democrats were worried. At the same time as they were confident, they began voting in the tax bill in October 2017. The Democratic Congress’s Campaign Committee and other groups found that if they did not oppose the GOP message, the Republicans would win the fight. So democrats tried to define the tax bill by emphasizing who was prioritized in the bill – mainly large companies and the rich.
Voters seemed to believe that tax code changes were not meant for them but for companies.
“It’s important to remember: tax relief should be popular,” said DCED Communications Director Meredith Kelly to HuffPost this week.
The most disturbing period for Democrats came in January and February when big companies and businesses apparently announced new bonuses for Employees each day and credited them to the tax bill. At one point, the Legislative Approval Rating reached 50 percent in a New York Times Vote . And then the move stopped partly due to the fact that the bonuses were wiped up and the bill appeared
Legislation gave a little more money in most voters’ hands. The average household in the middle of 20 percent of income would receive 1.3 percent more home wages due to lower interest rates this year, according to a March survey of the independent tax policy center. But the law reduces taxes more significantly for richer indi The taxpayers in the 95 to 99 income percentages will have 3.4 percent more income after tax.
The law also slams money on companies. Contrast the temporary tax cuts on a few percentage points for individuals with a permanent 40 percent tax reduction for companies. The voters seemed to think that the tax code changes were not intended for them but for companies.
Republicans claimed that a drastically lower corporate tax rate would increase employment and wages, and they pointed to a series of corporate bonus announcements as evidence. When house ministry leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) Described the bonus as “crumbs” in relation to what the company received, Republicans spent weeks emphasizing her comment as sharp and incredible.
But the bonuses were really crumbs compared with the daredevil of shareholder-repurchased shares that the team inspired this year. Employees may not even have noticed the small tax cuts in their paycheck aside from other changes, such as different pension deductions and premium increases for health insurance.
“It was a republican nexus, Trump White House and big wealthy companies trying to sell this plan,” said Ferguson. “We were not misleading about what we were against. But each time a CEO talked about the size of the plan, it confirmed to voters that this was a plan for the CEO.”
DCCC also stressed the importance of the Democrats to focus on how much more the rich had benefited from, rather than getting an argument about how much money went to the individuals.
“We would make clear to ordinary people that they did not become first,” said Kelly.
Despite strong economic growth – gross domestic product rose by 3.5 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous year – wage growth has been weak. Adjusted for inflation, real earnings for most workers have risen by less than 1 percent annually over a certain month this year. In the fourth quarter of 2006, which also saw 3.5 percent GDP growth, profitability increased by more than 2 percent each month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The first real political test for tax bill came during the special elections in Pennsylvania in early 2018. Republicans just had their tax bill, and they pressed their candidate, Rick Saccone, to use the law against the Democratic candidate Conor Lamb. But Lamb claimed – in a strong Republican district – that he at the same time supported tax cuts in general, he did not support a giveaway to companies and the wealthy, and he did not bother to increase the deficit and possibly trim Medicare and social security.  Lamb could tie deficit-lowering tax cuts to possible reductions for Medicare and Social Security, capitalization on comments like House Speaker Paul Ryan (Wis.) And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) Reached about the need for rights reform.
The strategy worked. Saccone lost the competition. And suddenly Republicans were a bit more violent about driving tax breaks.
As legislators began to fight seriously this year, Republicans barely mentioned the law of taxes and works in their advertisements. Democrats, meanwhile rented comedy authors to skewer the law.
DCCC also said that its communications worked in part because the Republicans had soured voters by trying to provide health protection for people with existing conditions.
“The poisoned well,” said DCCC National Press Officer Tyler Law to HuffPost.
Kelly and Law said it would have been much more difficult for Democrats to neutralize the tax issue if the Republicans had gone through the law before attempting to abolish Obamacare.
Just under 12 percent of GOP TV ads mentioned the tax bill, of 396,607 TV sites analyzed.
During the summer, the tax law blew from national political consciousness. North Korea, Trump’s press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki and Trump’s threat to fire professor Jeff Sessions dominated the news. Democrats are relentlessly focused on health care. The Republican situation in key housing districts deteriorated.
Round Labor Day, Club for Growth – a conservative group pushing for tax cuts – drove a vote of the swing district. It found a massive enthusiasm in the service of democrats and tested ways to solve it.
“The strongest of these were to defend the tax cuts and make them permanent,” wrote polls Chris Wilson and Byron Allen from WPA Intelligence in a memo which summarized their findings . “Defending tax cuts and making them permanent were both the strongest convincing message of moving swing voters to vote for Republicans and the strongest message to create further interest in the election among Republican voters.”
The group shared the information with Ryan and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), But nothing changed.
“They completely ignored the data,” said David McIntosh, President of the Growth Club and an Indiana-former congressional leader. “It was a classic failure of the establishment of the Republican Party to run on questions that were helpful to them.”
He argued that Democrats opposed their opposition to the law, with fewer and fewer demands for a complete rescission and certain mood to make tax cuts permanent for individuals. He said the Republicans could have saved their members as Rep Dave Brat, who lost his seat in the suburb of Richmond, Virginia, if they had focused more on tax cuts.
The National Republican Campaign Committee and Congress Leadership Competition claim that they did not run on tax bills. NRCC communications director Matt Gorman told HuffPost that Republicans made campaign on an economic message and released a handful of advertisements one week before the election day, mostly referred to as tax cuts and the economy. “I also think it should not prevent us from entering the candidates’ background and digging into opposition research,” he said.
What he probably meant with it is nuggets like the New York Democrat Antonio Delgado once was a Minnesota Democrat Dan Feehan is employed by a “ [George] Soros-funded liberal outfit in DC  “and associates Michigan Democrat Elissa Slotkin with Pelosi and riot mobs because” Slotkin is one of them “according to ads paid by the NRCC.
Republicans may have talked about the tax bill and the strong economy, but it was far from the overwhelming message. According to data prepared by Kantar Media / CMAG for HuffPost in September, just under 12 percent of GOP TV advertisements mentioned the tax bill of 396,607 TV sites analyzed. And despite Republicans claiming, the numbers were likely to deteriorate during the last two months of the campaign, as Trump and the GOP focused on a strengthened crisis centered on asylum seekers from Central America that crossed the southwest American border, the so-called caravan.
That strategy prevented a true blue wave from collecting, spelling away democratic pickup in a district where Trump and his racial messages have traction. But in the suburbs, wealthy, educated districts – where “country club republicans” increasingly turn to the president – the failure of the Republicans to avail their tax bill has been one of the reasons they lost there.