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Heavy snowfall possible over Stateline

ROCKFORD (WREX) – Hopefully you've found the snowman and the boots. Let's start with Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Warning…

ROCKFORD (WREX) – Hopefully you’ve found the snowman and the boots.

Let’s start with Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Warning which takes effect overnight for Northern Illinois. This includes Boone, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, and Winnebago Counties. A system coming from Rockie’s front end is scheduled to pay Northern Illinois a visit tomorrow. This may lead to the first significant snowfall for the season’s area. If you are at home, several snow events in November have officially given Rockford 3.9. “

The forecast for tonight looks favorable for dry conditions by midnight. If you have not had the chance to get to Stroll on State, it’s going to 21

:00 and the weather looks good. The temperatures are slowly falling through 30- century, with winds sometimes causing wind disturbances to feel like they are in the 1930s. Precipitation lasts until early morning hours tomorrow.

Here is the setting for this storm:

  1. Low over the front moves over night and will be located across northern Missouri / western Illinois tomorrow morning.
  2. This system is pumping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the middle of the west.
  3. When the low pressure moves in, the cold air will enter the air .
  4. The jet stream will lie just to our south, which helps to provide the elevator needed for heavy rainfall (the same lift in spring can lead to strong thunderstorms.)

The four things are essentially The ingredients needed for a snowy cake. The heavy snow shaft is very likely to develop across southeast Iowa and northern Illinois. Models have come to a much greater agreement on the track of this system. This means that increased confidence is that a significant winter storm will affect Stateline.

In terms of accumulation, there is some uncertainty. At this time it seems that a solid turn of 6 “-8” is likely from southeast of Freeport, through much of Central Winnebago County, which stretches south across Lee and Ogle Counties. The 6 “-8” chance of snow extends as far east as Chicago’s northern suburbs. Outside the area, the snowfall is overall a little less secure, especially southeast of Stateline. The snow sums quickly release down to Joliet and Kankakee. The same sharp gradient is possible across the northwestern part of Illinois.

The uncertainty in (1) exactly the track and (2) where heavy snowbills are evolving can lead to the snow totals being potentially higher or lower than where the heaviest snow is currently forecast (7:30 PM Saturday). If the track of this storm changes 50 miles north or south, it will obviously have a significant impact on snowfall numbers. As this storm is still evolving over Rockie’s edge, it still has a lot of land to cover before an exact track can be given with great confidence.

The second experimental river in the ointment is the development of heavy snow bands. It is almost certain that somewhere in the northwestern quadrant of this system heavy snow bands will develop. Where the heavy snowballs are evolving can really ramp up the snow combinations. The forecast 6 “-8” can be closer to one foot if the snowballs really twist. With most winter storms like this one it is extremely difficult to predict the location of where these snowbeds should set up. In many cases the event takes place before it can be secured where the heavy snow tires are established, mainly because it is highly dependent on where the low of 700 mb is (technical meteorology jargon).

Bottom line is this: tomorrow is a busy travel day for many, as it is Sunday after thanksgiving. Many are likely to be on the roads all day tomorrow. This powerful storm can really speed the traffic through the day. It is very important to keep tabs on the forecast, as there are likely to be minor adjustments and adjustments over the next 24 hours.

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Faela