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# Elon Musk says there is a 70 percent chance that he will move to Mars (and possibly die there)

The next Mars landing on Monday gives Elon Musk spacecraft a 70 percent chance of moving to Mars. However, in an Axio's interview who flies tonight on HBO, he emphasizes that there will not be a billionaire joyride . "NASA is preparing for its next Mars landing on Monday, giving SpaceX CEO Elon Musk a 70 percent chance of moving to Mars. But in an Axio's interview that flies tonight on HBO, he emphasizes that it will not be a billionaire joyride. <p class = "canvas-atom canvas text Mb (1 .0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt 0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "" Your probability of dying on Mars is much higher than the earth. Really, the ad to go to Mars would be like Shackleton's ad to go to Antarctica, "said Musk, referring to the difficult expedition of Ernest Shackleton 1914-1917. (The apocryphal ad was probably the headline " Men Who Wanted Dangerous Travel " ) "Data Reaction Time =" 23 ">" Your probability of dying on Mars is much higher than the Earth. Actually, the ad to go to Mars should be like the Shackleton's ad to go to Antarctica, "Musk says, referring to explorer Ernest Shackleton's difficult 1914-1917 expedition. (The apocryphal ad was probably the heading "Men wanted a dangerous journey.") "It will be difficult," Musk said. "There is a good chance of dying in a small jar through deep space. You can land successfully. As you land successfully, you work nonstop to build the…

The next Mars landing on Monday gives Elon Musk spacecraft a 70 percent chance of moving to Mars. However, in an Axio’s interview who flies tonight on HBO, he emphasizes that there will not be a billionaire joyride . “NASA is preparing for its next Mars landing on Monday, giving SpaceX CEO Elon Musk a 70 percent chance of moving to Mars. But in an Axio’s interview that flies tonight on HBO, he emphasizes that it will not be a billionaire joyride.

<p class = “canvas-atom canvas text Mb (1

.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt 0.8em) – sm” type = “text” content = “” Your probability of dying on Mars is much higher than the earth. Really, the ad to go to Mars would be like Shackleton’s ad to go to Antarctica, “said Musk, referring to the difficult expedition of Ernest Shackleton 1914-1917. (The apocryphal ad was probably the headline ” Men Who Wanted Dangerous Travel “ ) “Data Reaction Time =” 23 “>” Your probability of dying on Mars is much higher than the Earth. Actually, the ad to go to Mars should be like the Shackleton’s ad to go to Antarctica, “Musk says, referring to explorer Ernest Shackleton’s difficult 1914-1917 expedition. (The apocryphal ad was probably the heading “Men wanted a dangerous journey.”)

“It will be difficult,” Musk said. “There is a good chance of dying in a small jar through deep space. You can land successfully. As you land successfully, you work nonstop to build the base. There is a good chance that you die there. We think you can come back, but we’re not sure. Now does it sound like a flight hatch for rich people? “

He compared the cover with Mount Everest’s attraction to mountaineers:” They like to do it for the challenge. “

<p class =” canvas atom canvas text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm “type =” text “content =” And about Musk’s vision for the next decade True, Mars will cost “a few hundred thousand dollars” – which is still four to five times as expensive as a Everest expedition but far cheaper than the \$ 80 million that the Russians have paid for travel to the International Space Station. “Data and Response =” 26 “> And if Musc’s vision for the next decade applies, Mars will cost” a few hundred thousand dollars “- which is still four to five times as expensive as an Everest expedition, but the road is cheaper than the \$ 80 million that the Russians have paid for travel to the International Space Station.

<p class = “canvas atom kanvastext Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm” type = “text “content =” Musk is consistently optimistic about timelines and costs, so it’s best not to keep him too close to the estimates he gave in Axio’s interview. But he tends to be conservative about the percentages he quotes in his risk assessment of the manuscript. For example, he gave SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket only a 50-50 chance of full success at its jungle release, which proved to be a triumph ] & nbsp; on the following day. Musk is consistently optimistic about timelines and costs, so it’s best not to keep him too close to the estimates he gave in Axio’s interview. But he tends to be conservative about the percentages he quotes in his For example, he gave the SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket only a 50-50 chance of full success at his virgin, which proved to be a triumph the following day.

<p class = “canvas-atom canvas text Mb em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm “type =” text “content =” He also said that he gave SpaceX a 10 percent chance of success when he started the company for 16 years ago, and this game was not that bad. The privately owned company is currently valued at somewhere around \$ 28 billion & nbsp; (although the last effort to secure what turned out to be a \$ 250 million loan triggered controversy ). “Data Reaction =” 30 “> He also said that he gave SpaceX only 10 percent chance of success when he started the company 16 years ago, and that game was not that bad. The privately owned company is currently evaluated somewhere around \$ 28 billion (although the latest effort to secure what turned out to be a \$ 250 million loan constitutes controversy).

All this means that 47-year-old Musk feels good at his chances of making it into it red planet. And the chance is much higher for NASA’s Mars Insight landlord, which is expected to touch down just before noon NPT Monday on a flat martish plain called Elysium Planitia.

<h4 class = “canvas-atom canvas text Mb em) Mb (19) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm “type =” text “content =” Your guide to InSight : How to look at Mars landing, and what look at ” data-reaction = “32”> Your guide to InSigh t : How to Look at the Mars Landing and What to Watch

Mars Insight is designed to monitor the seismic activity and heat flow of the red planet and gather data that gives scientists more insight into what Mars is made of .

<p class = “canvas-atom canvas text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt 0.8em) – sm” type = “text” content = “Today, his spacecraft performed and changed its expected landing point about 11 miles to target the center of the targeted landing strip. ” data-reactid = “34”> Today, the spacecraft performed its most recent course correction maneuver and shifted its expected landing point around 11 miles to target the center of the targeted landing strip.

<p class = “canvas-atom canvas text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm” type = “text” content = “The farmer is designed to slow down his descent Using a flight shelf, parachute and a set of 12 landings Even with all that technology, the chances of success are not 100 percent: You just have to watch the Mars Polar Lander crash 1999 to see what could go wrong. ” data-reactive = “35”> The farmer is designed to slow down his descent using a flight shelf, parachute and a set of 12 landing supports. Even with all that technology, the chances for success are not 100 percent: You just have to watch the Mars Polar Lander crash in 1999 to see what could go wrong.

<p class = “canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm” type = “text” content = “” I am completely excited and completely nervous at the same time, for all that we have done to make the date make us feel comfortable and convinced that we will land on Mars, “said Tom Hoffman, Project Manager for InSight to journalists in NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory . “But everything must be perfect, and Mars can always throw we’re a curveball.” “Data-reaction =” 36 “>” I’m completely excited and completely nervous at the same time, because all we’ve done so far makes us feel comfortable and convinced that we will land on Mars, “says Tom Hoffman, Project Manager for InSight, for reporters today in NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “But everything must be perfect, and Mars can always throw us a curve ball.”

It is a good advice for Musk to remember when he sets the odds.

NASA’s landing coverage begins at 11 am PT, and you can watch the show via NASA’s YouTube channel:

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