With a complete surprise Tuesday, 13 members of the College Football Playoff election committee should reveal a top four that…
With a complete surprise Tuesday, 13 members of the College Football Playoff election committee should reveal a top four that includes Alabama, Clemson, LSU and Notre Dame tonight at 7 ET at the College Football Playoff: Top 25 on ESPN, although orders are debatable .
If you are a superstitious fan of one of these teams, avoid number 3 the place at all costs, as Team No. 3 in the committee’s first ranking has not finished the playoffs yet. Notre Dame, who was No. 3 last year, can certify this. The unfortunate Irishman finished 14th.
At first glance, the final playoff image seems to be distinguished when Alabama travels to LSU on Saturday for what will become one of the most meaningful games of the season. If Alabama wins, the West Division cuts and will win the Georgia-Kentucky game in the SEC championship.
If Alabama loses? Oh, that’s where it becomes interesting. According to ESPN Analytics, there are four scenarios where the SEC would have at least 35 percent chance of sending two teams to playoff (again) ̵
1; although Alabama loses. If Tide wins, there are three scenarios where the league has at least 41 percent chance of getting two teams in the last four.
There are seven possibilities for CFP chaos – all around Alabama and LSU. Do not you think so? Have a look.
The chaos can easily be spread beyond Baton Rouge.
Michigan can lose to Penn State but still win Big Ten and end up as a two-loss champion. One-loss Washington State can still win Pac-12. Notre Dame can lose. The Big 12 can have a two-loss champion.
The committee is sweating – and we turn to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, a measurement tool developed by ESPN Analytics that runs thousands of simulations to project which four teams to be selected on the show day. It was created using the Committee’s trends over the last four seasons. There are factors that reinforce record, FPI, number of losses and conference championships, and it regards independent status (Notre Dame, who does not have a conference title game).
Let’s test it and see if a two-piece Georgia team can join SEC champ Alabama in the top four – or if the committee has a better option.