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Chinese Roof Cuts and Model 3 Production Disaster Could Lift Tesla to Monster Q4

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Cars

Published on December 3, 201

8 |
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Steve Hanley

December 3, 2018 at Steve Hanley


Stock markets around the world are becoming a relief sweep today when the US and China agreed on a 90 day cooling-off period in their trade war, which has seen China hit a 40% taxi on cars imported from America. This measure has deteriorated in Tesla sales in China, as its cars now cost significantly more than similar vehicles produced within the country.

 Tesla Model 3

Tesla sales have recently disappeared on some accounts 70%, but it is a requirement that Tesla denies. Whatever the actual numbers may be (Tesla plays its cards close to its west in terms of reporting sales numbers per country and month), it would be difficult to assume that the duties have not affected sales. In response, Tesla has lowered the prices of Model X and Model S vehicles sold in China by as much as 26% to compensate slightly for the shrinkage the tariffs have put into sales.

Tweeting from the G20 conference in Buenos Aires this week, the US president had good news about customs.

What that means exactly is ambiguous right now. Is it “decrease” or “delete”, and if earlier, how much of a reduction will there be?

Monster Q4 Predicted

Regardless of China and Tariffs, none of it has unpleasantly held Greentech Media from predicting a monster fourth quarter for Tesla. But who does not require that? Tesla’s sales are always bigger during the last quarter of the month and December is generally a monster quarter in China, with this year far above the earlier for both of these expectations. Predictions are worth exactly what we pay for them of course, but GTM seems to have access to some inside information that we can not independently verify, so we just add on the header of header indicators. Here’s what the outlet has to say:

“Current calculations for Q4 2018 are production of 60,750 Models 3s and 25,116 Model S + X combined, totaling 85,866. Total estimated deliveries for the quarter are 61,976 Model 3s and 27,872 Model S + X combined , a total of 89,848. If that is correct, it means that Tesla has been able to maintain a model 3 rate of around 5,000 units a week (against 4,300 units per week last quarter), and perhaps a profitable model of 35,000 USD is within reach. “

CleanTechnica reached Tesla for a comment on the GTM story but received no response, which in itself may have any meaning. If the requirements were wrong, the company would likely issue a denial.

Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker

Bloomberg retains its own model 3 tracker, which has proven quite accurate to predict how many cars Tesla manufactures at a certain time, but it is still a guesstimate. Updated on December 3, it claims that Tesla has built a total of 132,306 Model 3s and produces 4,152 of them each week. The fact that Bloomberg does this at all is an indication of how big model 3 is. Bloomberg does not have similar trackers for Chevy Bolt, Nissan LEAF, BMW i3, Jaguar I-PACE or Auto e-throne, for example.

Taking all the predictions together and assuming that they are more or less accurate, the probability is that Tesla will once again surprise and confuse their skeptics in the fourth quarter and add significant gains two quarters in a row. We are not sure until the Q4 call in early February, but it looks like those of you who made the jump and bought shares in Tesla when the price a few months ago will feel quite satisfied when final figures are revealed.


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Tags: China, China Tariffs, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model 3 Sale, Tesla Sales, Tesla Sales China, Trump Fees

About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and somewhere else, Singularity can take him. His mouse is Charles Kuralt – “I see the way forward turns. I wonder what lies around the bend?”

You can follow him on Google+ and on Twitter .

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