China is one of the few policy areas in which there is a two-way consensus. Democrats agree that the United States should take harder measures against rising power across a range of fronts, from the military, to trade, intelligence and diplomacy.
Desperate for a solution to the commercial warfare that weighs on China’s economy, there is a perception in China that a democratically-led house can mean a softer attitude toward Beijing.
Nick Marro, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said the view was misguided because the Democrats have historically been more unions and less for free trade than their opponents. “It is unlikely they will push for a larger trade relationship with China,” he said.
Although the House wanted, the power of releasing duties on China is mainly placed in executive ̵
1; it’s President Trump. If he needs support from the Congress on China policy in the future, the Democrats have shown some signs they will stand in his way.
All this is bad news for Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose government has scrambled to appease an increasingly hostile US administration, after attempting flattering and friendship early in Trump’s term did not deliver properly.
In addition to the economic consequences, the optics in the line of Trump also hurt Xi at home.
Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Center for China Studies and Associated Political Analysts, said that Xi has encountered rare criticisms of the ruling Communist Party for managing the US crisis.
“He has been widely criticized, not by name, of course, but subtle because he failed to handle Trump’s versatile challenge. He is very much on the defensive,” said Lam.
Competition and confrontation
The US-China trade war as Trump ignited during the middle of the year has continually worsened over months, now charging over 250 billion kronor of Chinese goods.
] But it was a landmark speech by US Vice President Mike Pence in early October that marked the start of a new aggressive policy against Beijing, sparking a new cold war.
“Beijing exploits a holistic use to promote its influence and benefit from its interests. It utilizes this force in more proactive and compulsive ways to interfere with domestic policies in the country, saying Pence in Washington on October 4th.
“To put it completely, President Trump’s leadership works. China wants another American president. “
Add fuel to the fire, both Trump and Pence have accused China of attempting to melt in the election on November 6, with reference to small evidence. The allegations have been rejected by Beijing.
US leaders pointed to the ranking of Chinese states by advertising in US newspapers as evidence, but analysts say that the exercise is long-lasting and pale in comparison to previous Russian efforts in disturbances.
The tension has also risen over the disputed territory in Taiwan, which China considers a disrupted province and the bitterly questioned
All this has led to China’s view that Trump’s criticism of the country was just a way to trump the Republican voice before Tuesday’s election.
Tong Zhao, a colleague at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing said that China had been “over-emphasized” in late US police k.
“The feeling is that the United States raises the competitive and confrontational character of bilateral relations for the benefits of domestic politics.”
But the fear of a more powerful China in the United States is real. Trump made competition with China a major part of his election campaign two years ago, and now it’s not just about trade.
In addition to increasing military maneuvers near China’s doorstep, Trump seems to use help to counter China’s influence in the world.
Trump threatened to cut out aid before the election, but last month he wrote off on the newly formed US Development Finance Group for Developing Countries in October, behind $ 60 billion in loans and other assistance. It was only a month after Xi announced its own aid package, investments and loans in Africa, worth $ 60 billion.
But there is some reason for optimism. Trump and Xis again-friendship friendship seem to have warmed after a phone call last Wednesday. It was their first conversation for months and came barely a week before the mid-term election, indicating that they were thrown into relationships.
Trump tweeted about his “long and very good conversation” with Xi and called the Chinese president “big” numerous times in a campaign rally after the conversation.
But Beijing has become familiar with Trump’s faint nature, and soon mixed signals began to creep into the White House’s messages.
While Bloomberg News, referring to sources, reported that Trump had directed its cabinet to draft a trade agreement with Beijing, Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow, White House, said that the two countries were “not due to an agreement” .
Tough line in China “popular”
The idea that the Chinese government should put its hope for democrats to ease tensions is remarkable, especially when Xi tightens his grip at home and bursts hard on everything which is perceived as a deviation.
For decades, since President Richard Nixon made a historic visit to Communist China in 1972, his fellow Republicans – more professionals than Democrats – were tending to be China’s closest Allies in Washington.
Compared with Democrats – which traditionally tended to focus more on human rights issues in China – was reluctant to release Beijing into the body in the hope of closer trade ties, a vision that remains to this day.
However, as frustration grew in business with China’s perceived refusal to liberalize its economy, the Republicans repeated their position towards Beijing and the company’s lobby groups cooled their pro-China status.
“I do not think Beijing understands just how popular in DC is a tougher line in China,” said Isaac Stone Fish, Senior Counselor at Asia’s Society, CNN.
“There is surprisingly bipartical support in DC for a tougher, or some would say more fair policies to China, especially about trade but also human rights.”
Panic in Beijing
The American midterm comes at a time when Beijing is more and more losing how to handle the increasingly hostile Trump administration.
When the Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai performed at Fox News in mid-October, he was asked by host Chris Wallace, who in the White House runs commercial policy against China.
“You say to me, “Cui answered with a smile. “(Diplomats) do not know who is the final decision maker. Of course, the president assumes the final decision, but who plays what role? Sometimes it can be very confusing.”
Chinese officials, who had seen Trump as a politically naive transaction leader, were surprised when relations with the United States suddenly became tense during the latter part of the year. Now they are struggling to elaborate on how to restore peace.
But Stone Fish said at the end of the day, perhaps Washington’s policy is not the biggest issue that threatens Xi, among a growing number of domestic headaches for the Chinese leader.
The Political Bureau of the Communist Party, one of the country’s highest decision-making bodies, issued last week a statement confirming for the first time “increased pressure” on the economy.
Even before Trump began its trade attack against China, the government fought hard with increasing indebtedness across the country and sought to balance environmental protection by avoiding a slowdown in growth.
“Of concern that Xi faces, the top 20 are much more domestic focused,” said Stone Fish.
If both Xi and Trump are forced to turn further in to address domestic troubles, diplomatic toning may take some time to come.