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Bull market celebrates its 10th anniversary

"Bull markets do not have expiration dates," says Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "A bull market usually stops when economic overrun goes to extremes, and we don't see it anywhere right now."The market day fills a bit of an asterisk. This is because S & P 500 has not closed on record high since September. If the broad index is closed on a bear market before a new high hits, the story will say that the bull market officially ended last autumn.In other words, it would have been spun for a decade.It is also worth noting that while the bull market is furthest on record, it is not the strongest. This title goes to the bull market of the 1990s, which lifted S & P by 417%, according to LPL Financial.The market home at the end of 2018 served as a blunt reminder: The bull market will not be forever. In fact, Dow and S & P 500 almost closed in December in a bear market, defined as a 20% decrease from previous levels. And Nasdaq officially entered a bear market that Wall Street freaked out of an imminent recession.US shares have been driven back to life in 2019.The scare war has declined due to advances in trade negotiations between the United States and China and a strong reversal from the Federal Reserve, which is no longer rushing to raise interest rates. Despite this week's sales week, S & P 500 is less than 8% away…

“Bull markets do not have expiration dates,” says Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “A bull market usually stops when economic overrun goes to extremes, and we don’t see it anywhere right now.”

The market day fills a bit of an asterisk. This is because S & P 500 has not closed on record high since September. If the broad index is closed on a bear market before a new high hits, the story will say that the bull market officially ended last autumn.

In other words, it would have been spun for a decade.

It is also worth noting that while the bull market is furthest on record, it is not the strongest. This title goes to the bull market of the 1990s, which lifted S & P by 417%, according to LPL Financial.

The market home at the end of 2018 served as a blunt reminder: The bull market will not be forever. In fact, Dow and S & P 500 almost closed in December in a bear market, defined as a 20% decrease from previous levels. And Nasdaq officially entered a bear market that Wall Street freaked out of an imminent recession.

US shares have been driven back to life in 2019.

The scare war has declined due to advances in trade negotiations between the United States and China and a strong reversal from the Federal Reserve, which is no longer rushing to raise interest rates. Despite this week’s sales week, S & P 500 is less than 8% away from its all-time high.

David Kelly, world-leading strategist at JPMorgan Funds, does not believe the bull market is near its end.

“The bull market should continue until the economy actually goes down,” Kelly said. “The only thing that will keep it down is if people are really afraid of the economy.”

The stock market is once again helped by global central banks. Not only is the Fed paused and considering an end to the balance sheet, but the uber dovish European Central Bank supports plans to raise interest rates. The ECB said this week that it expects interest rates to remain at record lows – on negative territory – by the end of 2019. “The interest rates are so low that stocks look attractive,” Kelly says. “It will be very difficult to see a sustainable decline until people are really worried about the profit outlook.”

Growth slows sharply

The fear of delay was reversed in the front of the week with the latest economic figures. China’s exports fell 21% in February, the most serious downturn in three years.

And the United States created just 20,000 jobs in February, very shy of the 160,000 economists had predicted. This was the biggest job missed in relation to expectations since December 2008, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

But economists claim it is too early to worry about a single poor month of employment gains. The January job report was a blockbuster, with payroll wages increasing by 304,000 jobs. And the bad report in February was probably muddied by bad weather and the long-lasting effect of the government’s suspension.

The work report “was the strangest thing I’ve seen at a time,” Clemons said. “It was clear that the state’s suspension and winter weather played chaos with the numbers.”

Clemons said it makes sense to wait and see if the labor market is recovering in March. He expects it to.

The overall economic development is still not beautiful. The US economy grew at a steady rate of 3.4% annually in the third quarter, but GDP slowed to 2.6% in the fourth quarter.

And the US central bank’s GDP forecasting tool requires only 0.5% growth

“This economy is probably only declining rather than stalling,” Kelly said.

If he is wrong, the bull market cannot live for 10 years after all.

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