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Brexit promises ghosts politicians like Britain are facing crunch week

This roadmap is at stake this Tuesday, when legislators vote for a second time on her revocation agreement to take Britain out of the EU. If this agreement is defeated, they will be asked the next day if the UK is to leave without an agreement – an option that can be said should be held for negotiation purposes.The month's occupied affair and the generally expected parliament's defeat show that the work of untangling more than four decades of European integration is struggling to live up to the high promises of the 2016 referendum campaign.The hubris and amazing claims sold by many Brexit-supporting politicians – and sometimes some remaining – are now facing the moment of truth, as the deadline for Britain's exit from the EU is huge. When some companies jump over, retailers are dealing with products and fear of lack of medicine, one thing is clear: Utopia, which many of the 17.4 million Brexit voters dreamed of, may be indulgent. The Sunlit Highlands They said it would be easy. The Vote Leave campaign and its followers argued that negotiations with the EU would lead to "the easiest trade agreement in human history". The voice would put Britain in "a free trade area extending from Iceland to Turkey," said prominent Brexiteer Michael Gove – now a leading member of the government. Leaving the 28-nation block – the largest free trade area in the world – would have "no drawbacks, only significant gains," said former Brexite secretary David Davis. The…

This roadmap is at stake this Tuesday, when legislators vote for a second time on her revocation agreement to take Britain out of the EU. If this agreement is defeated, they will be asked the next day if the UK is to leave without an agreement – an option that can be said should be held for negotiation purposes.

The month’s occupied affair and the generally expected parliament’s defeat show that the work of untangling more than four decades of European integration is struggling to live up to the high promises of the 2016 referendum campaign.

The hubris and amazing claims sold by many Brexit-supporting politicians – and sometimes some remaining – are now facing the moment of truth, as the deadline for Britain’s exit from the EU is huge.

When some companies jump over, retailers are dealing with products and fear of lack of medicine, one thing is clear: Utopia, which many of the 17.4 million Brexit voters dreamed of, may be indulgent.

The Sunlit Highlands

They said it would be easy. The Vote Leave campaign and its followers argued that negotiations with the EU would lead to “the easiest trade agreement in human history”. The voice would put Britain in “a free trade area extending from Iceland to Turkey,” said prominent Brexiteer Michael Gove – now a leading member of the government.

Leaving the 28-nation block – the largest free trade area in the world – would have “no drawbacks, only significant gains,” said former Brexite secretary David Davis. The future arrangements would bring “exactly the same benefits” that Britain had as an EU member.

These claims were repeated after nausea. Leaving would be “quick and easy” because “the United Kingdom holds most of the cards in negotiations,” Conservative MP John Redwood said in 2016. At the same time, former London mayor Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers assured the public that “it will continue to be free trade and access to the internal market “, if Britain voted to leave.

But even before the vote in June 2016, rhetoric was voted out of each other. Johnson claims – in numerous editions, speeches, and interviews – the weekly £ 350 million pound ($ 456 million) paid to Europe can instead be used to fund Britain’s beloved, but congested, national health care.

That figure was perceived as “potentially misleading” by the nation’s statistical agencies, because it did not take into account the discount applied before the UK pays its contributions to the EU or other benefits it receives.

The grim lowlands

Fast winding to 2019, and the many promises are under even greater scrutiny.

Estimates now suggest that the weekly cost of leaving the EU is more than twice as much as £ 350 million famous on the side of the Leave Campaign’s bus.

Gertjan Vlieghe, the UK economy, said in February that Brexit had cost £ 40 billion ($ 52 billion) a year since the 2016 poll – a weekly loss of £ 800 million ($ 1 billion).

Other aspects of the Brexit campaign are now calling hollow, with Trade Minister Liam Fox, who may regret her prediction that a trade agreement with the EU would be “one of the simplest in human history”. Even supporters admit that there will be at least short-term disturbance, and claims of “sun-lit upland” have been replaced by the assurance that Brexit “will not be the end of the world”, as May said in August in a trade mission to Africa.

Brexiteers focused on the idea that they could “take control” of Britain’s borders and immigration controls and “create their own laws” while retaining all the economic benefits of the single market. “Our policy has our cake and eats it,” as Johnson explained. Exactly how this was possible was unclear.

“Cakeism”, as the Brexiteer approach came to be known, failed to recognize that the European single market came with its “four freedoms” – free movement of goods, services, capital and most importantly.

And leaving the Customs Union came with great complications, namely the creation of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic that would contravene the Agreement of Good Friday 1998 which aimed to end decades of sectarian violence.

And what Brexite’s underestimated was the unity of the European leaders during the negotiations – and how Northern Ireland and the Conservative Party’s ruling partner, the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland (DUP), would be a huge source of coercion.

By September 2017, Brexit’s secretary Davis acknowledged that negotiations with the EU were harder than he thought. “No one has ever made it easy. I have always said that this debate will be tough, complex and sometimes confrontational,” he said.

The Brexiteer Response

In 2018, it became clear that Mays’ “red lines” for leaving both the internal market and the customs associations were mitigated against a divorce agreement that would indefinitely bind the UK closer to EU rules. Davis resigned as Brexite secretary in July to protest against Mays new tariff plan.

He was followed by the cabinet the next day by Johnson. Johnson’s resignation emphasized the new and relaxed views of Brexiteer politicians in leaving the EU without trade and commerce under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules – a scenario hardly mentioned during the referendum campaign.

Leave followers “voted to come out”, Johnson wrote in his weekly column for The Telegraph in January to advocate a tough exit from the EU.

“There is no agreement or WTO condition that actually corresponds to their idea of ​​coming out and they see the option of trust that is now directly proportional to the growing strength of government warnings against it.” [19659026] From the UK to the United Kingdom alone

Among the many climbs, Britain’s ability to enter into free trade agreements with any country – something it cannot do when it is still in the Customs Union.

For example, Davis had argued that it would only take two years for Britain to “negotiate a free trade area that is significantly larger than the EU”.

Not only would these “new trade agreements” come into force at the end of the EU, but they will be fully negotiated, “he said in a conservative piece from 2016.

 From titanic success to

That year, Brexiteer Liam Fox was tasked to do just that with the newly created title of international trade secretary. He promised “one second after midnight in March 2019 “Britain would have 40 trading transactions in the bag.

But clockwise looking at that very midnight, local reports said he had signed agreements after trading with six governments with Brexit, including Switzerland, the Faroe Islands, the Palestinian Authority and Chile. [19659005] Cultural War

Immigration was the fast-paced issue that drove the Brexit vote; the National Statistics Office (ONS) ranked the UK’s main attention in the spring of 2016.

It Perceived The vote was encouraged by the polls and claimed that remaining in the EU would mean up to 5.23 million immigrants coming to the UK. [19659009] During the weeks before the referendum, Brexit-supporting politicians, including Penny Mordaunt and Michael Gove, wrongly said that Britain would be exposed to a wave of Muslim immigration by joining the EU.

“With the terrorist threat we are facing only growing, it is difficult to see how it can be in our security interests to open a visa-free trip to 77 million Turkish citizens and create a border area from Iraq, Iran and Syria to the English Channel,” Gove told for a poll mode.

Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination, a United Nations agency, accused British politicians of pushing for a sharp increase in racist hate crimes during and after the EU referendum campaign – some solemn newspapers and commentators continue to claim is a myth.

Gove now expresses regret and says it was wrong on the campaign to burn the immigration horror about Turkey. “If it had been completely left to me, the Leave campaign had a slightly different feeling,” he says according to Tom Baldwin’s 2018 book, “Ctrl Alt Delete: How Politics and Media Crashed Our Democracy”.

In May 2017, May promised the number of immigrants to be “tens of thousands” and to stop free movement – the right of Europeans living in the Schengen area to move to other Member States. However, the attempt to do so was abandoned during the negotiations.

But at that time nobody listened. According to the spring 2018 ONS statistics, immigration problems had lost their bite – ranking during housing, living expenses and health and social security.

A story about two sides

The remnant camp was not free from inaccuracies, either. When the Leave Campaign won, David Cameron did not stay as prime minister – having said he would.

Let the voters say that Remain predicted a “Brexaggedon” that has not happened. There is one element of truth in their claims. Former Chancellor George Osborne warned that a vacancy vote would lead to “an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would lead to our economy being hit by a recession and leading to an unemployment rate of about 500,000.”

The economy did not go in and unemployment is now the lowest on record. But it was only the Treasury that mistakenly predicted a recession.

Other forecasts, such as the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Institute for Tax Studies, predict a predictably slower growth in the event of members – in line with Britain’s 2017 growth of 1.7% – which makes It is the only country in the G7 group of rich nations to record a slowdown that year.

By 2018, Britain’s economy expanded with its slowest annual half-decade and the British pound is now 14% lower than before the referendum. It comes from war warnings that companies would fight or move after Brexit.

It’s not really an apocalypse, but neither does Britain signal that what Boris Johnson once explained would be a “titanic success” with Brexit.

Even the predictions and confusion are one thing for sure – if Brexit goes forward it will not look like the vision that the British people originally sold.


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