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Brexit promises ghosts politicians like Britain are facing crunch week

This roadmap is at stake this Tuesday, when legislators vote for a second time on her revocation agreement to take Britain out of the EU. If that agreement is defeated, they will be asked the next day whether the UK should leave without agreement – an option that can be said to be held for negotiation purposes.If it fails, MPs are likely to vote again on Thursday requesting a delay to Brexit from the EU.The moon's convincing agreement and its generally anticipated parliamentary defeat show that the work of untangling more than four decades of European integration is struggling to live up to the high promises of the 2016 referendum campaign. 1; and sometimes some remaining – are now facing the moment of truth, as the deadline for Britain's exit from the EU is huge. When some companies skip, the retail trade deals with products and fear of medicine shortage, one thing becomes clear: Utopia that many of the 17.4 million Brexit voters dreamed of can be unforgivable. The Sunlit Marks Initially they said it would be so simple. The Vote Leave campaign and its followers argued that negotiations with the EU would lead to "the easiest trade agreement in human history". The voice would put Britain in "a free trade area extending from Iceland to Turkey," said prominent Brexiteer Michael Gove – now a leading member of the government. Leaving the 28-nation block – the largest free trade area in the world – would have "no drawbacks, only significant…

This roadmap is at stake this Tuesday, when legislators vote for a second time on her revocation agreement to take Britain out of the EU. If that agreement is defeated, they will be asked the next day whether the UK should leave without agreement – an option that can be said to be held for negotiation purposes.

If it fails, MPs are likely to vote again on Thursday requesting a delay to Brexit from the EU.

The moon’s convincing agreement and its generally anticipated parliamentary defeat show that the work of untangling more than four decades of European integration is struggling to live up to the high promises of the 2016 referendum campaign.

1; and sometimes some remaining – are now facing the moment of truth, as the deadline for Britain’s exit from the EU is huge.

When some companies skip, the retail trade deals with products and fear of medicine shortage, one thing becomes clear: Utopia that many of the 17.4 million Brexit voters dreamed of can be unforgivable.

The Sunlit Marks

Initially they said it would be so simple. The Vote Leave campaign and its followers argued that negotiations with the EU would lead to “the easiest trade agreement in human history”. The voice would put Britain in “a free trade area extending from Iceland to Turkey,” said prominent Brexiteer Michael Gove – now a leading member of the government.

Leaving the 28-nation block – the largest free trade area in the world – would have “no drawbacks, only significant gains,” said former Brexite secretary David Davis. The future arrangements would bring “exactly the same benefits” that Britain had as an EU member.

These claims were repeated after nausea. Leaving would be “quick and easy” because “the United Kingdom holds most of the cards in negotiations,” Conservative MP John Redwood said in 2016. At the same time, former London mayor Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers assured the public that “it will continue to be free trade and access to the internal market “, if Britain voted to leave.

But even before the vote in June 2016, rhetoric was voted for each other. Johnson claims – in numerous editions, speeches, and interviews – the weekly £ 350 million ($ 456 million) paid to Europe can instead be used to fund Britain’s beloved, but congested, national health care.

That figure was lampooned as “potentially misleading” by the nation’s statistical agencies, because it did not take into account the discount applied before the UK pays its contributions to the EU or other benefits it receives.

The grim lowlands

Fast winding up to 2019, and the many promises are under even greater scrutiny.

Estimates now suggest that the weekly cost of leaving the EU is more than twice as much as £ 350 million strongly emblazoned on the side of the campaign.

In January, Gertjan Vlieghe, economist in England, said that Brexit had cost £ 40 billion ($ 52 billion) a year since the 2016 poll – a weekly £ 800 million loss ($ 1 billion).

Other aspects of the Brexit campaign are now calling hollow, with Trade Minister Liam Fox, who may regret her prediction that a trade agreement with the EU would be “one of the simplest in human history”. Even supporters admit that there will be at least short-term disturbance, and claims of “sun-lit upland” have been replaced by the assurance that Brexit “will not be the end of the world”, as May said in August in a trade mission to Africa.

Brexiteers invested in the idea that they could “take control” of Britain’s borders and immigration controls and “make their own laws” while retaining all the economic benefits of the single market. “Our policy has our cake and eats it,” as Johnson explained. Exactly how this was possible remained unclear.

“Cakeism”, as the Brexiteer approach came to be known, failed to recognize that the European single market came with its “four freedoms” – free movement of goods, services, capital and most importantly.

And leaving the Customs Union came with great complications, namely the creation of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic that would contravene the Agreement of Good Friday 1998 which aimed to end decades of sectarian violence.

And what Brexite’s underestimated was the unity of the European leaders during the negotiations – and how Northern Ireland and the Conservative Party’s ruling partner, the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland (DUP), would be a huge source of coercion.

By September 2017, Brexit’s secretary Davis acknowledged that negotiations with the EU were harder than he thought. “No one has ever made it easy. I have always said that this debate will be tough, complex and sometimes confrontational,” he said.

The Brexiteer Response

In 2018, it became clear that Mays “red lines” for leaving both the internal market and the customs associations were mitigated against a divorce agreement that would indefinitely bind the UK closer to EU rules. Davis resigned as Brexite secretary in July to protest against Mays new tariff plan.

He was followed by the cabinet the next day by Johnson. Johnson’s resignation emphasized the new and relaxed views of Brexiteer politicians in leaving the EU without trade and commerce under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules – a scenario hardly mentioned during the referendum campaign.

Leave followers “voted to come out”, Johnson wrote in his weekly Telegraph column in January to advocate a tough exit from the EU.

“There is no business or WTO condition that actually corresponds to their idea of ​​coming out and they see the option of trust that is now directly proportional to the growing strength of government warnings against it.” [19659027] From the UK to the United Kingdom alone

Among the many climbs, Britain’s ability to enter into free trade agreements with any country – something it cannot do when it is still in the Customs Union.

For example, Davis had argued that it would only take two years for Britain to “negotiate a free trade area that is significantly larger than the EU”.

Not only would these “new trade agreements” come into force at the end of the EU, but they will be fully negotiated, “he said in a conservative piece from 2016.

 From titanic success to

That year, Brexiteer Liam Fox was tasked to do just that with the newly created title of international trade secretary. He promised to “one second after midnight in March 2019 “Britain would have 40 trade deals in the bag.

But with the clock tipping towards the very midnight, local reports said he had signed up for Brexit trade agreement with six governments, including Switzerland, the Faroe Islands, the Palestinian Authority and Chile.

Cultural War

Immigration was the fast-paced issue that drove the Brexit vote; the National Statistics Office (ONS) ranked the UK’s main attention in the spring of 2016.

ppm was driven by the polls and claimed that remaining in the EU would mean up to 5.23 million immigrants coming to the UK. [19659010] During the weeks before the referendum, Brexit-supporting politicians, including Penny Mordaunt and Michael Gove, wrongly said that Britain would be exposed to a wave of Muslim immigration by joining the EU.

“With the terrorist threat we are facing only growing, it is difficult to see how it can be in our security interests to open a visa-free trip to 77 million Turkish citizens and create a border area from Iraq, Iran and Syria to the English Channel,” Gove told for a poll mode.

Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination, a UN agency, accused British politicians of pushing for a sharp increase in racist hate crimes during and after the EU referendum campaign – some solemn newspapers and commentators continue to claim is a myth.

Gove now expresses regret and says it was wrong on the campaign to burn the immigration horror about Turkey. “If it had been completely left to me, the Leave campaign had a slightly different feeling,” he says according to Tom Baldwin’s 2018 book, “Ctrl Alt Delete: How Politics and Media Crashed Our Democracy”.

In May 2017, May promised the number of immigrants to be “tens of thousands” and to stop free movement – the right of Europeans living in the Schengen area to move to other Member States. However, the attempt to do so was abandoned during the negotiations.

But at that time nobody listened. According to our statistics from the spring of 2018, immigration problems had lost their bitterness – ranking under housing, cost of living and health and social security.

A story about two pages

Remain camp was not free from miscalculations, either. When the retirement campaign won, David Cameron died as prime minister – having said he would stay.

Let the voters say that Remain predicted a “Brexaggedon” that has not happened. There is one element of truth in their claims. Former Chancellor George Osborne warned that a vacancy vote would lead to “an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would lead to our economy being hit by a recession and leading to an unemployment rate of about 500,000.”

The economy did not go in and unemployment is now the lowest on record. But it was only the Treasury that mistakenly predicted a recession.

Other forecasters, such as the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Institute for Financial Studies, carefully predicted slower growth in the event of members – in line with Britain’s 2017 growth of 1.7% – making it to the only country in the G7 group of rich nations to record a slowdown that year.

By 2018, Britain’s economy expanded with its slowest annual rate of half a decade and the British pound is now 14% lower than before the referendum. It comes from war warnings that companies would fight or move after Brexit.

It’s not really an apocalypse, but neither does it signal that Britain does what Boris Johnson once explained would be a “titanic success” with Brexit.

Among the predictions and confusion is one thing sure – if Brexit goes ahead it will not look like the vision the British people originally sold.


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