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As Brexit crunch approaches the campaign for a new referendum, pace is gathering

LONDON (Reuters) – After losing the most controversial referendum in British history, James McGrory went for a drink at The…

LONDON (Reuters) – After losing the most controversial referendum in British history, James McGrory went for a drink at The Hope Pub near London’s medieval meat market. In the midst of slaughterers in bloody garments, his dream of turning Brexit seemed hopeless.

A British Union flag and an EU flag are seen as flying over offices in London, UK, March 30, 201

6. REUTERS / Toby Melville

Two years later, the country is in crisis over how or whether to leave the European Union , McGrory feels more convinced that his campaign can help secure another referendum that he hopes would break against the 2016 result.

The thought of a second referendum has gathered support from some leading British politicians and seems to have traction with parts of public opinion but the political situation is so uncertain that it is difficult to say if this will actually be converted into another vote , and when or how it can do, or what question can be asked.

“We have been seen as a freelance view, despatched and laughing at being at the heart of the Brexit debate,” said McGrory, 36-year campaign director for the People’s Vote campaign. an interview.

“Odds are getting shorter every day when we get a new referendum. All momentum is with our campaign.”

Betting odds show that there is a 43 percent probability of a referendum before 2020. Players think there is a 55 percent probability that Britain will not leave the plan on March 29.

Opinion polls indicate that voters’ shift has shifted from being left in the EU, but the public is still widely fragmented in the middle.

It is still unclear how exactly a second vote can be called, although some MEPs have drawn up a detailed roadmap, describing possible legislative paths for another referendum.

At the same time, campaigns for another vote are busy lobbying parliament and trying to drum up public support with rallies and social media and common media. They note Prime Minister Theresa May has included his desired results as one of three alternatives to the country: her deal, no agreement or conversion of Brexit.

US. Investment Bank J.P. Morgan said the chances of Britain calling out Brexit had risen after a series of parliamentary defeat for May cast new doubts over her plan to end the block.

VOTE REVERSED?

To beat Brexit up and down would mark one of the most extraordinary reversals in modern British history and likely prevent the 17.4 million people who voted to leave the EU.

The road to a new referendum is full of crisis. May’s Brexit Agreement will first be voted down in Parliament on December 11th. Secondly, her government must bear an attempt by the opposition party to reverse it and then call a national election.

With the clock ticking on March 29 and the prices of the financial markets in what would be a potentially untouched exit, McGrory and his campaigns hope that Britain’s politicians will accept that they have come to an end and throw the question back to voters.

David Lammy, a labor lawyer, said that after Parliament failed to reach agreement, it would reluctantly hold another referendum as the best among a limited number of airfields to avoid potentially chaotic withdrawal.

“We’re likely to stop walking around and around in circles and when politics are stuck and can not compromise, the only way to get out of it is to go back to the people,” Lammy told Reuters.

Lammy said that the situation might resemble Charles Dickens novel Bleak House, which revolves around a will-show that has been in court so long as the participants can remember the original arguments.

A new referendum can only be called if approved by Parliament. This can either be presented by the government or by rebels.

PIPE DREAM?

The obstacles to another referendum are high.

Both major political parties undertake to leave the EU in accordance with the 2016 referendum.

The working party Jeremy Corbyn, who voted against membership in the European Community in a referendum from 1975, has shown that he is not keen on another referendum now.

His party has said that they will only support another referendum if the agreement is voted down and they fail to force a general election.

Some union leaders opposed another referendum because they believe it would be seen as betrayal of millions of Brexit followers in Labor’s constituencies.

Brexit supporters say that the 2016 vote must be respected. “It’s quite dangerous for us to turn to the people now and say,” You let us come down. You’re wrong, “said Nigel Evans, a Conservative MP.

Although Parliament agreed in principle to a second referendum, Britain would have to request an extension of its timetable to leave the EU to give enough time for a campaign, probably by withdrawing article 50 resignation.

Tuesday, just a few hours before a five-day debate in May, an adviser told the ECJ that Britain could withdraw its formal divorce notice. The court will rule on December 10th.

Although it was a change in mood, there would be controversy as to what the question would be and whether another referendum would give another result.

SUBJECT?

After the 2016 campaign turned out -europées on each other and blamed on what they saw as their opponents chess game on the Brexit campaign.

But after their defeat, a small group of influential politicians, journalists and campaigns set out a plan to keep Britain in the club that joined in 1973.

They had to face unpleasant truths.

Their 2016 campaign had been ripped with rivalry, injured by its association with former Prime Minister David Cameron, underprivileged on social media and cast by opponents as the company’s voice arguing for the status quo.

In recent months, pro -EU campaigns have become more optimistic. In October, the People’s Vote organized a march of nearly 700,000 people through London who demanded another vote.

“The tables have turned,” said McGrory. “We are the subdog. We are the scrappy campaign that makes things a little different.”

During the past month, two ministers have resigned from requiring a new referendum.

Three of the four former British prime ministers are still living – John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – have also said a second referendum is the way to resolve the crisis.

James McGrory, Head of the People’s Vote Political Campaign Group, stands for a portrait at the Lambeth Bridge in central London, United Kingdom on November 29, 2018. REUTERS / Toby Melville

The mood of the People’s Voting Headquarters in Millbank Tower near the parliament is bullish.

Young people review map of target groups and organize an advertisement to convince parliamentarians to block government’s business.

“If someone thinks Brexit is a ready store, they should be ready for another surprise,” said McGrory.

Reporting by Andrew MacAskill; Further reporting by William James; Editing Guy Faulconbridge and Giles Elgood

Our Standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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