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A “no-deal” Brexit can look like this

"I think no agreement would be totally disastrous for this country," told conservative lawmaker and former lawyer Dominic Grieve Sky News this summer. "We must be realistic about this. We will be in an emergency. Basic services you take for granted may not be available." Part of what has made the Brexit process so difficult is the lack of precedent. No country has ever escaped from an organization like E.U. The flow of goods between U.K. and E.U. goes as smoothly as between California and Texas, without time-consuming customs checks or paperwork. Manufacturers order goods when they need them, eliminating the need for stock. Food and medicine flow seamlessly across borders without delay. British maternity clothing manufacturer Tiffany Rose has spent the last year's plan for Brexit. The largest export market is E.U. and a "no-deal" Brexit would mean a big change in the way it does business. "It's really frustrating to spend time planning for this when we really would like to spend time planning to grow," Tiffany Rose Director Christian Robinson said. The company, which sells to Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus in the United States, has made plans for several different political outcomes, but can only afford to take concrete actions when the reality is completed. "I would hope we do not have to wait until time goes by until we have clarity," says Robinson. The business is dependent on trucking and logistics companies, which would also be among the first industries that know the effects of a…

“I think no agreement would be totally disastrous for this country,” told conservative lawmaker and former lawyer Dominic Grieve Sky News this summer. “We must be realistic about this. We will be in an emergency. Basic services you take for granted may not be available.”

Part of what has made the Brexit process so difficult is the lack of precedent. No country has ever escaped from an organization like E.U.

The flow of goods between U.K. and E.U. goes as smoothly as between California and Texas, without time-consuming customs checks or paperwork. Manufacturers order goods when they need them, eliminating the need for stock. Food and medicine flow seamlessly across borders without delay.

British maternity clothing manufacturer Tiffany Rose has spent the last year’s plan for Brexit. The largest export market is E.U. and a “no-deal” Brexit would mean a big change in the way it does business.

“It’s really frustrating to spend time planning for this when we really would like to spend time planning to grow,” Tiffany Rose Director Christian Robinson said.

The company, which sells to Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus in the United States, has made plans for several different political outcomes, but can only afford to take concrete actions when the reality is completed.

“I would hope we do not have to wait until time goes by until we have clarity,” says Robinson.

The business is dependent on trucking and logistics companies, which would also be among the first industries that know the effects of a “No-Deal” Brexit.

Rod McKenzie, President of the Road Transport Association, described the effect on the truck industry as “dire.”

He said that shipping company “faces a very serious situation that the government has insufficiently provided for . “

Only customs paperwork would be devastating, according to the organization. In addition, each truck would need a special permit to cross the EU

Truck’s cargo ship in the English coastal town of Dover. Impact assessments indicate two-minute delays on every Dover truck as a result of potential checks after Brexit would cause a traffic jam of 17 miles. Four minutes would lead to reaching Maidstone, 40 miles away. Susannah Ireland / for NBC News

Currently McKenzie that there are only 2,000 for Britain and about 40,000 trucks that would need them

Storage Medicine

The shock waves in a no-deal Brexit would be felt over the British economy.

According to potential scenarios modeled by the Bank of England, Britain’s GDP could rise to 10.5 percent lower than it would have been in late 2023.

Unemployment can rise as high as 7.5 percent – up from 4.1 percent now – and inflation would also rise.

With just over three months to go before the Brexit Day on March 29, the government has said it strengthens its preparations if no agreement has been agreed, including plans to store a six-week drug delivery.

“I have become the largest purchaser of refrigerators in the world,” said health secretary Matt Hancock told BBC on Monday.

But that may not be enough.

“The government is beyond the point where it can be clear if nothing happens,” said Tim Durrant, senior researcher at the Institute of Government, a non-Partyist thinking.

It’s not just the government that needs planning. According to the Bank of England, less than a third of companies have made some changes in their business plans to prepare for Brexit.

“Many companies are skeptical about investing time and money in something that will not happen, but if they will not get even bigger problems,” said Durrant.

Expat uncertainty

There are 3 million EU citizens living in the UK and another 1 million Britons living in the EU

As they are from a member state, they are allowed to live and work across the EU without special visa arrangements entitled to state benefits such as healthcare and may even vote in municipal elections.

If Britain leaves the EU

Many Brexit-supporting legislators in the main party’s own party are apparently about to leave without any agreement.

Many say they think it is appropriate to sign up for the resumption agreement that May took home from Brussels.

“We must stop the ban on death. After all, we have prepared for an agreement for over two years and more than £ 4 billion have been allocated for these preparations, “wrote Conservative legislature Michael Tomlinson in the Guardian newspaper last week.

Fear of violence

An area that may feel the hardest effect of a non-scenario scenario would be the border between Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom, and the Irish Republic, a separate country that will remain part of the EU [19659002] This is the only land border in the UK with an EU country, and it is currently more or less invisible.

Memories of the “Problems” – a decades of conflict that ended with a 1998 peace agreement – are still fresh and there is a strong desire to avoid returning to a physical border with control points.

A few fears that can provoke a return to violence.

“Maybe not Is it the end of March 2019 if there is no agreement to all the sudden the walls to go to go up, “says Feargal Cochrane, a professor of international conflict analysis at the University of Kent.” They can have a smooth landing for a week or two but you can not see it go further than that. “

Efforts to police the border and subsequent arrests can quickly spin in protests, clashes and even conflicts, he warned.

Impact on the United States

For the United States, Britain’s exit from the EU could mean the loss of an influential allied when it concerns foreign policy challenges such as Iran’s sanctions, counteract China’s influence and respond to Russia’s aggression.

“In a no-deal exit, the British government would face crisis situations and would need to deal with immediate effects of long lines in ports, questions of food and medicine and flight interruptions, “said Amanda Sloat, a former government department official under the Obama administration and a leading colleague at Brookings Institution.

Food shortage may be a consequence of a no-deal Brexit. 19659013] Daniel Leal-Olivas / PA Wire / AP File

That means that there would be no bandwidth to deal with much of everything else, explain she warned.

The United States has mostly stayed in the debate and the official line is that it would change a bit for the close allies. But analysts say it’s not necessarily the reality.

“Generally speaking, in the form of Brexit leaving U.K., it will be a loss for the United States,” said Sloat, which suggests that it could ultimately reduce the US influence in E.U. “They are our most like-minded allies.”

Alexander Smith contributed.

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